The US has prepared a new “peace plan“ for the war in Ukraine, which provides for numerous concessions from Kiev. The Telegraph writes that the plan has one huge flaw and it is related to security guarantees.
The US guarantee to protect Kiev from Putin is not reliable, since the chances of it being fulfilled are extremely low.
According to media reports, the Ukrainian army is expected to withdraw from the entire Donbas, and the number and combat readiness of the Ukrainian armed forces will be reduced. Concessions are also expected from Russia. Trump's plan apparently obliges Russian troops to return part of the territories they have seized in the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. In addition, Ukraine could be offered some kind of defense guarantee from the US in exchange for concessions in terms of its own military capabilities.
However, the Ukrainians do not like such a plan because it crosses their red lines related to territorial concessions. Recognizing the entire Donbas as Russian would be a huge insult to the sacrifices made by Ukrainian forces there over the past 10 years.
Trump's offer of security guarantees from the US as a kind of consolation prize for Ukraine is also more than strange, the publication notes.
First, this contradicts Trump's entire strategy of refusing security obligations that should not be required of the US military. In fact, such a scheme contradicts the principle of “America First“.
Second, how would including Ukraine under the US security umbrella differ from offering Kiev NATO membership – a decision that successive US administrations have avoided for two decades, as it would inevitably anger Russia and would require a unanimous decision within the alliance. The most important thing is: will US security guarantees mean anything to Ukraine and can the Americans ensure their implementation? The answer is unclear.
The Biden and Trump administrations disagreed on many issues, but both took the position that it was not worth engaging in a conventional conflict with the world's largest nuclear power just to defend Ukraine.