Is Europe the next target? The end of the war in Ukraine is unlikely to satisfy Putin

A ceasefire in Ukraine under the current conditions would pose a serious threat not only to Kiev, but also to all of Europe. Despite numerous statements about “inevitable peace”, there is no reason to believe that 2026 will change the scenario of 2025 - the war will continue, and optimistic promises are based more on political fantasies than on reality, writes The Independent, quoted by Focus.

Russia is trying to achieve through diplomatic means what it has failed to achieve in 11 years of war. Donald Trump remains the Kremlin's key tool in this process. The publication writes:

"Russia continues to expand the boundaries of what Ukraine and Europe are forced to accept - both on the front and at the negotiating table.“

In 2025, Trump tried three times to convince Ukraine to accept Russian demands under the guise of a ceasefire agreement. Each time, the worst-case scenario was avoided only thanks to urgent diplomatic efforts on the part of European leaders. At the same time, each new round of negotiations objectively improved Moscow's position.

A striking example was the so-called "Russian 28-point plan", presented in November. Instead of being completely rejected, it was accepted as a basis for negotiations. As a result, even the idea of \u200b\u200blimiting the size of the Ukrainian armed forces, which was previously considered unacceptable in Europe, now practically received tacit approval. The publication states:

"The war will not be decided on the front lines – and probably not in Ukraine.“

The publication emphasizes that the fighting in Ukraine continues not because of the lack of losses or pressure, but because of the reluctance of key players – both supporters of Ukraine and allies of Russia – to decisively change the balance of power. China, Iran and North Korea are deliberately supporting Moscow to the extent that the war exhausts the West, but does not escalate into a global conflict.

At the same time, the reduction in US support for Ukraine was predictable, and European countries were not ready to compensate for this loss. Moreover, Europe is ill-prepared for the eventual 2027, when the United States may reduce or stop supporting European defense altogether.

A dangerous illusion of peace

For Ukraine, however, the key problem remains unchanged: the fundamental goals of the countries are incompatible. The publication emphasizes:

“Russia wants to eliminate Ukraine as a free and independent state. Ukraine wants to survive.“

Analysts warn that even a temporary ceasefire could give the Kremlin the opportunity to regroup and prepare for a new attack, as it did in Georgia and Syria. At the same time, any reduction in the intensity of military operations risks creating an illusion of security in Europe and postponing the necessary rearmament.