Russian authorities are considering lowering the price cap in the budget rule to $45-50 per barrel, Bloomberg reports, citing sources.
According to informed sources, Moscow believes oil price of $40 per barrel could become a sustainable trend.
Also, according to two sources, the Ministry of Economic Development may reduce its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 0.7-1% in April, which is lower than the current forecast of 1.3%.
According to the agency, the average discount on Russian Urals crude oil exported through Western ports has increased to 30.62 dollars per barrel last week compared to Brent crude.
The previous day, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in an interview with the Rossiya-24 television channel that the government is considering tightening the budget rule in terms of the border price. He said the decision will be made relatively quickly.
“We are aware of this situation, and in order to preserve the resources of the National Welfare Fund and reduce pressure on the foreign exchange market, the Russian government is considering tightening the fiscal rule by lowering the base price. I believe that we will review and adopt such decisions relatively quickly,“ he said.
The minister noted that the main parameters for improving the fiscal rule have already been prepared. Siluanov expressed confidence that “such decisions will come from the government within a few weeks“.
Reducing the marginal price could improve the long-term sustainability of public finances, Bank of Russia Deputy Chairman Alexei Zabotkin told RBC in early February. However, he believes that abolishing the fiscal rule or fundamentally changing its operation would be a mistake.