Donald Trump is committed to the success of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, because his leadership in Hungary and his relationship with Trump are crucial to American interests, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed in mid-February. Rubio visited Hungary immediately after the Munich Security Conference to show his support for Orban. Support that the Hungarian prime minister definitely needs.
According to the latest polls, his party “Fidesz“ is trailing the opposition party “Tisza“ of Péter Magyar by 10% to 12%. Magyar, a former member of “Fidesz“, has become a unifying figure for Orban's opponents. If he wins the elections on April 12, the opposition politician promises that European funds for the country will be unfrozen and it will once again become a stable partner for the EU and NATO.
Orban - inspiration for the MAGA movement
The leading figures of the MAGA movement around Trump are very closely following the situation surrounding the elections in Hungary and are mobilizing in support of Orban, “Politico“ reports. Because for many of them, the Hungarian politician is an example with his harsh anti-immigration policy, the fight against universities and the so-called woke culture, as well as with his aggressive behavior towards Brussels and Ukraine. US Vice President J.D. Vance once even said that Orban "makes smart decisions that we can learn from in the United States."
If Orban does not win the election, from Washington's perspective it will represent the loss of a loyal ally. The Hungarian prime minister has always remained loyal to Trump, unlike Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, for example, with whom Orban has obvious differences on the issue of Ukraine.
A possible loss for Orban would seriously rearrange the cards in the EU
"If he loses, it will be seen as an ideological or intellectual failure," said Frank Furedi, an Orban ally who heads the Brussels branch of the Hungarian government-backed Matthias Corvinus Collegium. "It should be borne in mind that Orban has a significant impact on the worldview of many parties and leaders who feel strong sympathy for him," Furedi added, quoted by "Politico". "I think that his loss would have an impact, at least in the short term, on the political dynamics of the entire continent."
Indeed, a potential loss of Orban, who in recent years has been something of a "thorn in the heel" of the common European foreign policy and aid to Ukraine, would seriously change the balance of power in the EU. Without his veto, a number of policies can be adopted in the Council of the European Union, where decisions on key issues are made unanimously.
Trump may also give up on Orbán at the last minute
Just 3 weeks before the elections in Hungary, representatives of the MAGA movement, as well as conservative and populist politicians from across Europe, will gather in the Hungarian capital to participate in the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), organized by the American Conservative Union. Orbán hopes that Trump will also arrive in Budapest, but such a decision has not yet been made.
However, the serious problems in the Hungarian economy and corruption scandals seriously tip the scales in favor of the opposition. Therefore, it is not clear whether Trump will not give up the campaign in Hungary. The American president is not in the habit of investing political capital in causes he considers doomed, commented in this regard “Politico“. So, if the polls in Hungary continue to point to a defeat for Orbán and the prime minister fails to reverse the trend in the final phase of the campaign, he may be pushing to the limit of possible support from the United States - despite the fact that Orbán is one of the most prominent allies of the MAGA movement and its ideology.
Alexander Detev editor