A prolonged war with Iran risks triggering an unprecedented energy supply crisis that will sooner or later affect every part of the global economy.
It is already clear, however, that some countries are significantly more vulnerable than others or have more limited capabilities to cope with such a shock. Here are the economies under particular attention.
The attacks on oil and gas fields have already led to another sharp jump in prices on Thursday.
The major economies of the G-7
Eyes are first turned to Europe. A new energy shock revives painful memories of Russia's invasion of Ukraine four years ago, which exposed the continent's dependence on energy imports and sent inflation soaring into double digits.
Germany - Its industrial-oriented economy is particularly vulnerable to higher energy prices. The manufacturing sector only recently stopped contracting for the first time since 2022. As an exporter, Germany is also at risk from a global economic slowdown. A massive stimulus package announced last year will cushion some of the blow, but the scope for further support is limited by budget deficits.
Italy - also relies on a strong industrial sector, and oil and gas account for one of the highest shares of its energy consumption in Europe.
The United Kingdom - Its electricity generation is heavily dependent on gas-fired power plants. Gas prices almost always determine the price of electricity, and since the war they have risen faster than oil prices. The cap on energy prices will limit the initial inflationary effect, but there is a risk of rising interest rates. This could leave the UK with the highest borrowing costs in the G7 for a longer period, at a time of rising unemployment. Budget constraints and pressure from bond markets further limit the scope for support.
Japan - also highly exposed, as around 95% of its oil comes from the Middle East, and nearly 90% of it passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This adds to the already existing inflationary pressures associated with the weak yen and reliance on imported raw materials and food.
Major emerging economies
The Gulf region itself is taking a direct economic hit. Some analysts are already predicting that their economies could contract this year, despite expectations of pre-war growth.
The sharp rise in oil and gas prices is of no benefit if the Strait of Hormuz is effectively blocked - especially for countries like Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, which may find themselves unable to export energy resources.
The conflict could also affect remittances from workers abroad - a key source of income for local economies.
India is another highly exposed economy. The country imports about 90% of its crude oil and almost half of its liquefied petroleum gas, a significant portion of which passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Economists are already cutting growth forecasts, and the rupee has hit record lows. This is being felt acutely in everyday life - restaurants and households are seeing restrictions on hot meals due to rising gas prices.
Turkey - as a neighbor of Iran, is bracing for a possible influx of refugees and further geopolitical instability. The central bank has already been forced to halt its interest rate cut cycle and has spent up to $23 billion of its reserves to support the currency.
The most vulnerable countries
Several countries appear to be particularly at risk, as they have recently experienced or were on the verge of severe economic crises.
Sri Lanka - has introduced emergency measures, including a day off every Wednesday for civil servants, to reduce energy costs. Transport and access to fuel are being restricted.
Pakistan - raised fuel prices, closed schools for two weeks and imposed strict restrictions on the spending of state institutions.
Egypt - in addition to rising fuel and food prices, is facing a decline in revenues from the Suez Canal and tourism. An additional burden comes from servicing foreign debt, after the local currency depreciated by nearly 9% since the start of the war.
The overall picture shows that the energy crisis caused by the conflict has the potential to become a global economic shock with varying but serious force for individual regions.