On April 2, 2025, Donald Trump shocked the world. He declared "economic independence" for the United States and imposed tariffs on all countries around the world. The US Supreme Court subsequently ruled against this unprecedented measure, but the US president has no intention of giving up his tariff policy.
DW analyzes data on goods imported into the US over the past year, seeking answers to the questions: What have Trump's tariffs achieved? How is the rest of the world adapting to this new economic order? And are there any countries that benefit from it?
April 2, 2025: "Liberation Day"
On April 2, 2025, it was announced that the United States would impose a 10% base tariff on all goods exported to the United States for all countries. The exceptions are countries under sanctions and those with which there are existing trade agreements. It also announced that 85 countries that export more to the United States than they import will be subject to higher tariffs of up to 50%.
"I don't think people expected the US administration to essentially declare a trade war on the entire world", said Haishi Li, an economist at the University of Hong Kong whose research focuses on the impact of tariffs and sanctions on global trade.
The announcement of the tariffs was met with chaos and global stock markets plummeted. Trump publicly insisted that "big companies are not worried about tariffs", but on April 9 he announced a 90-day suspension of all tariffs above the base 10 percent.
During this time, many trading partners, including the European Union, Vietnam and the United Kingdom, hastily negotiated trade agreements in the hope of reducing the announced rates. Over the next few months, negotiations with China were turbulent - at times the retaliatory tariffs imposed reached 125%.
On August 7, 2025, the tariffs planned for each country finally came into effect - after multiple extensions of the initial 90-day pause.
What happened at the beginning?
"Tariffs will make us very rich," Trump announced upon taking office in January 2025. American companies understood the message and rushed to dramatically increase their orders to fill warehouses before prices rose. Thus, the value of imports into the country between January and March 2025 exceeded the average for the period 2022-2024 by about 20%. An increase of about $184 billion.
In anticipation of higher tariffs on gold bullion, for example, the US imported about 50 times its usual volume in early 2025, mainly from Switzerland, but also from Uzbekistan, the Philippines and Zimbabwe - for a total value of about $72 billion.
Major producers in Asia also saw a sharp increase, with Taiwan, Vietnam and India registering higher than usual exports to the US.
What happened between April and July 2025?
The tariff deferral announced on April 9 gave countries importing goods to the US time to adjust to the new situation.
A study by Haishi Li and colleagues found that the overwhelming majority of companies have tried to redirect their supply chains to countries with lower tariffs. tariffs.
Imports from no other country have fallen as much as from China, which has faced the greatest threats. In the period from April to July 2025, US imports from China fell by $66 billion compared to the same period in previous years.
Canada, which was threatened with a 25% tariff, also saw a significant drop in its exports to the US, amounting to $24 billion. However, the country seems to have successfully compensated for this development by registering an increase in trade with other countries. Canada's total exports in 2025 are only $1.6 billion lower than in 2024.
"The countries that benefited the most from the tariff scenario were the countries with the 10 percent tariffs - such as Australia and Latin American countries," says Li.
However, some countries with high tariffs also saw huge increases in exports to the United States. Vietnam, Thailand and Taiwan, for example, faced some of the highest "reciprocal tariffs" - 46%, 36% and 34%, respectively. However, Taiwan's exports to the United States alone grew by $34 billion between April and July.
"American importers turned to countries that offered alternatives to China," says Li. Many manufacturers in Taiwan and Vietnam already have strong ties with American companies, made possible by the trade dispute between the United States and China during Trump's first term, a process that pushed manufacturing and supply chains to these and other Asian economies.
Americans bear the brunt of tariffs
So far, the tariffs have failed to bring manufacturing back to the US, says Alex Durante, a senior economist at the Tax Foundation, a US think tank that tracks the impact of tariffs on the US. “Last year was pretty bad for manufacturing and employment”, he tells DW, adding that “in fact, the sectors that are growing are those that are relatively unaffected by the tariffs thanks to the exemptions - such as computers and artificial intelligence products”.
And although US importers are re-orienting their sources of supply, the total value of imports is quickly returning to its usual levels after the announcement of the so-called Liberation Day on April 2.
One indicator that is showing a sharp increase is the amount of customs revenue. In 2025, the U.S. Treasury collected $287 billion in tariffs and related taxes, roughly three times the amount collected in previous years. Preliminary data suggests that this figure is likely to be surpassed in 2026.
These revenues make up about 5% of all U.S. tax revenue in 2025. Recent studies show that the higher tariffs were paid almost entirely by U.S. importers, not foreign exporters.
As a result, U.S. consumers have borne the brunt. "We estimate that tariffs cost each U.S. household about $1,000 in 2025," Durante says. The reason: companies have been forced to raise prices, cut investment, cut jobs or lower wages to adjust to the tariffs.
Uncertainty haunts international exporters
Internationally, the months since August 2025 have been marked by hastily concluded and quickly broken trade agreements, as well as new threats of tariffs targeting individual countries or sectors.
According to economist Li, global trade has become much more uncertain. "If you ask academics, American politicians or anyone else what will happen this year - I don't think anyone knows."
And after the Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling that rejected the legal basis for Trump's original tariffs, it is unclear what traders can expect. Trump quickly imposed a new 15% general tariff, and the US administration seems determined to find other ways to impose higher tariffs. Exporters and importers can only guess what the coming months will bring.
To adapt to this uncertainty, individual governments can focus on supporting companies to explore new markets outside the US, says Li. "If they can diversify their supply chains, it will make them more resilient, which could be a positive for them," he adds.
Author: Kira Schacht