Russia is losing the initiative on the front, but this does not mean that Ukraine is gaining it. This difference is crucial, writes the German newspaper Der Spiegel in an analysis.
In addition to delivering political blows to Putin, Ukraine's strategy also includes destroying Russia's vital oil infrastructure, as well as the physical and psychological intrusion of war into Moscow's public life.
Kiev is using these blows to put psychological pressure on Moscow. And this is already yielding results. Analysts write that concern about the war in Ukraine is spreading among Moscow circles that keep Putin in power. Some in the Russian elite are increasingly saying that Russia will not be able to achieve its initial military goals.
But Ukraine’s current successes are short-lived. They do not represent lasting change, nor do they create prospects for a successful offensive. From a military perspective, this remains a war of attrition. Russia is losing the initiative, but that does not mean that Ukraine is winning it.
On defense, Ukraine can take advantage of many advantages that currently hinder Russia. If Ukraine itself launches a large-scale offensive, this logic would be reversed.
For a successful offensive, Ukraine needs armored forces, engineers, and reserves. And Kiev does not have them yet to achieve a rapid breakthrough. President Volodymyr Zelensky understands these problems and is therefore trying to rely on political leverage. However, there is still no sign that this is working or that Moscow is ready for negotiations.
Analysts write that for these negotiations to be successful, the West must provide more assistance to the Ukrainian army, to put it in a position of strength. Negotiations alone instead of successes on the battlefield is always the wrong strategy.
For the negotiations to be effective, the West must increase its support for Ukraine. Moscow may still believe that Ukraine's successes are not sustainable. The West must increase pressure on Russia before winter sets in, which will further weaken Ukraine.