Ukrainian drones are increasingly successfully overcoming Russian air defenses (air defenses) to strike critical infrastructure. After Ukrainian drones struck targets in Moscow on June 18 – the largest attack since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine – a debate has erupted about the gaps in Russia’s defense network.
A major oil refinery in Moscow, which supplies 40% of the region’s fuel, was attacked, causing it to shut down for several days. It also led to the evacuation of people from Russia’s largest airport. Videos have been posted on social media showing air defenses failing to stop Ukrainian drones.
"This impression arises mainly among non-specialists because they see a missile flying past the drone without hitting it", Ruslan Leviev, a Russian dissident, military analyst and founder of the Conflict Intelligence Team investigative group, told DW.
Kremlin bloggers are pessimistic
Russian journalist living in exile, Ivan Filipov, has been following pro-Kremlin bloggers and noted their growing concern that Ukraine has discovered a gap in Russian defense: “They don't want the war to stop, they expect a more effective war. But at the same time, they understand that a radical reform of the Defense Ministry and the Russian military-industrial complex is impossible. That's why their texts are mostly pessimistic," says Filipov.
Anatoly Khrapchinsky, a Ukrainian aviation expert and former air force officer, attributes the breakthrough in Moscow's air defenses on June 18 to a combination of two factors: the systematic deterioration of the Russian defense architecture and the technological development of Ukraine's strike capabilities.
Leviev does not quite agree with the first and recalls that the Russian defense actually shot down over 90% of the drones over Moscow. But the few that managed to break through caused significant damage. The expert believes that the problem is the quantity of drones: as drone attacks become more massive, this requires more equipment than any industry can provide. This is a challenge for both Russia and Ukraine.
Russia's Weaknesses
Russian systems, including the Pantsir-S1, were developed to counter classic large-scale attacks with cruise missiles, Khrapchinsky explained to DW. They are calibrated for metal targets that strongly reflect radar waves - modern drones, however, are often made of composite materials such as plastic or plywood. This means that these systems are practically "blind" to small drones. Russia's scale itself also poses a challenge: building an impenetrable "air wall" or "dome" over such a vast territory is impossible, Leviev points out.
And Moscow is an even easier target for drones due to its high urban density. The denser the built-up area - especially with tall buildings - the easier it is for drones to hide from radar, the expert explains. Ukraine is taking advantage of this. Khrapchinsky says that Kiev's drones, which have a long range, have significantly improved their ability to plan complex flight paths and avoid potential interception zones. At the same time, Russia has redirected some of its air defense systems to the parts of Ukraine it occupies.
Experts say that the best air defense systems are multi-layered - with different interceptors capable of operating at different altitudes and hitting different types of objects moving at different speeds, including missiles and drones. However, the regrouping of Russian forces has led to the disintegration of the once multi-layered air defense system, which now looks more like a mosaic, Khrapchinsky noted.
The American media outlet CBS also cited Ukrainian sources, according to whom Russia is on the verge of exhausting its stock of interceptor missiles for the S-300 surface-to-air air defense systems. It is believed that sanctions against Russia have prevented the supply of spare parts.
Khrapczynski links the shortage to the fact that Russia is redirecting its S-300s to strikes against Ukraine: “Russia has fallen into the trap of the same mathematics of war that it once tried to apply against Ukraine” - that is, with massive strikes with the S-300 complexes to overload the Ukrainian air defense. However, Russia has exhausted its own stock of interceptor missiles, the observer explains.
Kremlin tries to limit the damage
After the attack on Moscow on June 18, Russian authorities seemed more concerned about how well-documented the attack was than about the attack itself. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia’s air defenses had acted adequately and urged people to focus on Russia’s strikes on Ukraine. “The footage is impressive — it shows the results of our armed forces’ strikes. These strikes will continue,” Peskov said.
The Kremlin’s approach has been to downplay the attack. As Leviev says, from a military perspective, the drone strikes on June 18 changed almost nothing. He believes such attacks function more as “political strikes” and a way to sway public opinion, especially in the run-up to the State Duma elections in September.
Author: Alena Zhabina