Today at 1:30 p.m. local time, the Paris Court of Appeal will meet to announce its decision in the landmark case against Marine Le Pen and dozens of other key figures from the “National Rally“ party. (RN).
The case, which has been going on for years, puts at stake not only the personal career of the 57-year-old Le Pen, but also the entire configuration of French politics just months before the vote on Emmanuel Macron's successor.
In March 2025, the first-instance court found Le Pen guilty of organizing a scheme to divert over 4 million euros from European funds in the period 2004-2016. According to the prosecution, the funds intended for the salaries of MEPs' assistants actually went to finance party activities in France. She then received 4 years in prison (two of which were suspended and two under house arrest with an electronic bracelet) and a 5-year ban from holding public office with immediate effect.
Le Pen, who is currently leading in the polls, described the case as a political “witch hunt” and appealed, demanding a full acquittal and restoration of her political rights.
Three possible scenarios before the judges
Legal experts and French media outline three main outcomes from today's hearing:
- Full Vindication (Absolute Victory): The Court of Appeals overturns the previous decision in its entirety. Le Pen returns triumphantly to the campaign, having cleared her political name. However, according to lawyers, this option is unlikely given the overwhelming amount of evidence.
- Reduction of sentence to 2 years or less: The court confirms the guilt, but shortens the term of the ban on standing for elections. Since Le Pen has been serving this sanction since the end of March 2025, a ban of less than two years would expire just before the first round of the elections on April 18, 2027. Even then, however, any restrictive measures (such as house arrest) would make real campaigning logistically impossible and she could withdraw on her own.
- Confirmation of the severe punishment: The prosecutor's office insists on maintaining the 5-year ban on holding public office and 4 years of imprisonment. If the court agrees, Le Pen's political ambitions for the Élysée Palace will be finally ruined.
Are they ready in the “National Assembly“ for “Plan B“?
Marine Le Pen herself demonstrated composure, but hinted that in the event of an unfavorable outcome she would not endanger the stability of the party with endless legal battles at the next instance (the Supreme Court of Cassation). On the eve of the verdict, she held large-scale demonstrations of unity with her 30-year-old successor to the party leadership - Jordan Bardella.
“In that case, I will support Jordan Bardella“, Le Pen told supporters. Surveys show that the young MEP is not only ready to take over, but in some hypothetical scenarios, he is even ahead of his mentor in popularity and would win the vote against the traditional French parties.
Le Pen is expected to make an official statement and reveal her next moves as soon as she learns the court's reasoning, during the main news program on French television TF1 tonight at 8 p.m.