The war in Ukraine is quite possible to continue for at least another 3 years. During these 3 years, NATO will also stabilize and build structures for which it needs time.
So for us it is not entirely bad news that the war in Ukraine continues, because otherwise it will continue on our territory. This is the cynical reading of the war in Ukraine, said Bulgarian journalist Ruslan Trad in the podcast “5stotinki“.
Trad said that for Bulgaria it does not matter who rules in Moscow in the next 10 years, because Russia will not change its policy.
According to the analyst, it is not excluded that the war in Ukraine will spread to NATO territory, as American intelligence estimates show.
“Russian soldiers have already entered Estonian territory several times and returned to see how the Estonian authorities will react. Ukrainians expect Russia to open a new front this fall - in Chernigov. [Putin] will use the territory of Belarus, which will escalate the entire region“, said Ruslan Trad.
According to him, Poland will not allow Belarus to actively participate in the war, because Warsaw sees this scenario as a problem for its national security.
Ruslan Trad said that Poland will use military action against Belarus if this scenario comes true.
“In the last two years, many things have changed within NATO, precisely because of the problem around Article 5 (on collective defense), which is interpreted abstractly. If it were strictly observed, NATO would have intervened on Turkey's side in 2015, when Ankara shot down a Russian plane. Turkey then requested the activation of Article 5, but this request was ignored. Many of my colleagues do not remember this“, said Ruslan Trad.
“The good life we have in Europe must be defended, we cannot think only from today to tomorrow and not have any plan. The good news is that Bulgaria continues to be in the European Union and NATO. Beyond Rumen Radev's public appearances, he signs what he has to sign. And thank God, because if we were outside these two unions, we would be much more worried, because we are in a heart-attacked part of the world. This time we are on the right side of history“, also said Ruslan Trad.