Finland has a long border with Russia, and Vladimir Putin's army has apparently become more active in the region. What could be the goal?
The border between Russia and Finland is over 1,300 km long. It runs through uninhabited taiga and sparsely populated agricultural areas, as well as along rivers and seas. Since the Kremlin began the war against Ukraine in 2022, fewer and fewer people have crossed the border. Today, only freight trains cross it. But military activity has increased, writes the German public broadcaster ARD.
The border as a problematic region
On the Russian side of the sea, the Baltic and Northern Fleets are located. It is the Northern Fleet that plays a central role for Russia - when it comes to nuclear deterrence, Michael Jonas from the German Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies at the Bundeswehr told the German public media.
But the infantry also matters, the expert adds. "The 1,300 km long border, which a NATO country now has to manage militarily against Russia, is naturally very problematic."
A new military district along the border
As early as 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the creation of a fifth military district, and in the spring of 2024 the corresponding decree was signed. This is the new Leningrad Region, which also includes the border region with Finland. The Russian government probably relied on increasing efficiency with the creation of this new military district.
This decision was accompanied by 250 measures, as announced by the then Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. One of them is the expansion of the troops and the creation of an army corps with up to 100,000 soldiers, according to the Russian news agency TASS.
At the time, Shoigu had emphasized that the military would place emphasis on training soldiers to operate drones. The Russian Defense Ministry did not provide any other information about the presence in the region.
There are not many Russian troops on the border
Currently, Russia does not have enough soldiers to organize a large-scale presence in the region, says Michael Jonas, quoted by the German public media. There are now only about 20,000 soldiers there, as their main concentration is in Ukraine, he adds.
Nevertheless, the German military expert believes that Russia is expanding its military infrastructure along the border with Finland. The Finnish military supports this thesis: Army Commander Pasi Valimäki recently stated on Swedish television that, in his opinion, Russia's intentions include the deployment of 80,000 soldiers along the border. Other estimates even indicate around 115,000 soldiers.
Satellite images show activity along the border
Earlier last month, Scandinavian media reported on activity along the border, established on the basis of satellite images. For example, Russia had begun construction of a new military base, 190 km from the Finnish border. Near the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, one square km was cut down. forest, in whose place 50 facilities would be built.
The data from the Scandinavian media attracted the attention of the Russian portal topwar.ru, considered close to the government. The information was not refuted by the portal from the Russian side, which can be considered a sign that it is reliable.
Despite these developments, however, it is unlikely that there will be any operations by Russian ground forces in the region soon, according to the American Institute for the Study of War, as indicated by ARD.
There are three possible scenarios
According to defense expert Michael Jonas, there are three likely scenarios for Russia's actions. They range from an attack to purely defensive measures. He does not rule out that Russia could use the military infrastructure along the Finnish border mainly to divert attention.
"With the accession of Sweden and Finland, NATO is for the first time in a position to seriously defend the Baltic states," Jonas told the German public media, explaining that support for Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania in the event of a possible Russian attack could be provided through Finland.
However, this will most likely not happen soon, as the war against Ukraine will keep most Russian troops on the front there for the foreseeable future, Jonas notes. He suggests that after the end of the war, the Russians will need one to three years to be able to transfer enough units across the border with Finland.