Prolonged droughts, record heat and water shortages are changing agriculture in Central and Eastern Europe. Corn production in Hungary and Romania is falling sharply, summarizes „Reuters“, reports News.bg.
Hungary and Romania are among the main producers of corn in the EU, but the area sown with the crop has been decreasing in recent years. Hungary, which is traditionally an exporter, is expected to become an importer this year, while the quantities that Romania can offer on international markets are also shrinking.
The European Commission forecast at the end of August that the corn harvest in the EU this year will be around 50.1 million tons. This would be the lowest level in nearly two decades and about a fifth below the average for the previous three years.
Expana commodity market analyst Gabriel Antonio predicts an increase in EU corn imports by 8-9% in the 2026/2027 marketing year.
According to him, if the series of dry summers continues in the coming years and corn areas or yields continue to decrease, the problem will become much more important for the entire European Union.
High temperatures put pressure on agriculture
Europe is the fastest-warming continent in the world, and Central Europe is under particular pressure from high temperatures, decreasing soil moisture and water shortages, according to data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Soil moisture indicators in Romania and Hungary are less favourable than the averages for both the EU and OECD countries.
“This sustained decline in soil moisture has direct consequences for agricultural productivity and water resource management, and therefore for food security and livelihoods“, the OECD said.
Data from Reuters Climate Monitor show a significant shift in temperature patterns. Over the past decade, maximum temperatures in June and July in Hungary have been on average 3.1 degrees Celsius above the 1961-1990 average. In Romania, the deviation is around 3 degrees.
Harvests are falling
The consequences are already being seen in production. Romania's maize harvest this year is expected to be around 8 million tonnes. The country has avoided the worst effects of this year's drought in Europe, but production remains more than 50% below 2018-2019 levels.
Hungary is expected to produce just around 2.5 million tonnes - less than a third of the quantities previously produced during the same period.
The decline is also changing European grain trade. Romania's corn exports have fallen to between 2.2 million and 4.7 million tons per year in the period 2023-2025, compared to over 7 million tons around the beginning of the decade.
The Hungarian government has already announced that the country will have to import corn this year.
The chairman of the Hungarian Grain Producers Association, Tamás Petohászi, warns that the country is heading towards conditions he defines as a “semi-desert climate“, and calls for a change in the current agricultural model.
Water shortages also affect energy
The water shortage is already going beyond agriculture. The low level of the Danube last month forced nuclear reactors in Hungary and Romania to temporarily shut down.
This shows how prolonged drought can simultaneously affect food production, water supply, river transport and energy.
In its ten-year forecast for agricultural markets, the European Commission estimates the uncertainty around corn yields in Eastern Europe in 2035 at 18.7% - the highest level among all regions in the world it monitors.
More and more producers in Romania and Hungary are switching to crops that are more drought-tolerant, including sunflowers and winter crops. Irrigation is also seen as a means of adaptation, but prolonged water shortages are also putting limits on it.
Drying up or reducing the flow of irrigation canals means that investments in pumps, pipelines and other infrastructure cannot alone guarantee harvests.
Continuing the trend would have consequences beyond Hungary and Romania. Lower production in the EU's traditional maize belt increases the need for supplies from international markets and exposes Europe more to fluctuations in world prices, logistical problems and climate shocks in other major agricultural regions.