"Drone apocalypse" could cover Ukraine from Donbass all the way to Uzhhorod, but the main danger at the moment is not the geographical scope of the strikes. This was stated in a comment to UNIAN by Igor Lutsenko, commander of drone control units and founder of the Center for Air Intelligence Support of Ukraine.
In response to a question whether the strikes with jet drones on Volyn, Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv regions signal a new Russian tactic - or simply reflect the fact that they have more drones capable of flying at greater distances - the serviceman noted that the entire country has always been within the range of strikes.
"It was easier for them to choose closer targets in order to hit them faster. As for these strikes, I would focus not so much on Stryi and Lviv, but on yesterday's strike on a train. What we are seeing now is a demonstration of the capabilities of delivering precision strikes," he explained.
Lutsenko added that new communication systems have been developed that allow the "Shahed" drones to be guided to targets with high accuracy in FPV mode. This, the commander stressed, is the main danger, not the specific distance the drones can travel.
"They can fly all the way to Uzhgorod - that's not a problem. The fact that they can now hit targets precisely is a much bigger problem. Unfortunately, countering this will be quite difficult," Lutsenko said. Asked to specify the precision of such strikes, he explained that in FPV mode, the Russians control the drones in real time. "The strike against Poklad [referring to Oleksandr Poklad, acting head of the SBU - ed.] and the strike on the train on which Boris Johnson was traveling - all these were demonstrations of the capabilities of this system. And this poses a much greater threat than any of their capabilities - real or imagined - to reach a certain distance. The point is not just to reach the target, but to hit it precisely," the commander noted. "The role of Belarus" At the same time, when asked whether this could be related to signal repeaters in Belarus, he noted that this was a secondary issue. "At the moment, they are building network structures themselves - this is their main advantage. In other words, they are systematically developing their capabilities for strikes at great depth," Lutsenko said.
"Covering" Ukraine
As for whether Russia has the physical ability to "cover" all of Ukraine with drones around the clock - literally every hour - and whether the production volumes would be sufficient for this, the serviceman noted that at the moment the answer is negative.
"But I think that next year they may acquire this capability. They have planned development in this area and want to produce a huge number of jet drones. Therefore, I believe that what you are talking about is part of their plans," he pointed out.
Outlook for the coming months
In response to a question about the forecast for the coming months and what is preventing the Russians from "terrorizing" the entire country at the same time, he explained that the main limitation at the moment is the number of drones.
"I don't have the specific figures at the moment. But I think that large-scale contracts are planned for next year to deploy this process. These are jet drones with advanced guidance systems - be it using artificial intelligence or real-time guidance," the commander noted.
Countering Russian drones
As for how Ukraine can respond to a drone threat on a larger scale, he pointed to jet interceptors and solid-fuel missiles.
"They already exist in certain forms," Lutsenko said, adding that all this needs to be scaled up faster than the Russians are doing.
For example, he said, at least two interceptors - not just one - are needed for a single Shahed jet drone, since one could miss its target. "And all this must be at a price that we can afford", the commander noted.
"Drone apocalypse"
When asked whether it can be said that in the near future Ukraine will face a "drone apocalypse", the serviceman noted that it "has begun a long time ago".
"This is just a new stage", Lutsenko added.