Brazil's presidential race is heating up less than two weeks before the October 4 election. Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the first round, but recent polls show a close tie in a runoff.
According to a Quaest poll published on September 21, Lula received 37% of the vote in the first round, compared to 33% for Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. In a runoff simulation, the result was 42% for Bolsonaro and 41% for Lula, which is within the statistical margin of error of two percentage points. The poll was conducted among 2,004 voters between September 17 and 20.
Other recent surveys have also shown a close race, although the specific results vary depending on the polling agency. Reuters reported earlier in September that Quaest had registered a tie of 41% to 41% in a hypothetical second round.
The change in the electoral picture comes against the backdrop of a series of investigations and political scandals that have affected various parts of Brazilian politics and the judiciary.
Welt pays particular attention to the allegations against Fabio Luiz da Silva, known as Lulinha - the son of the incumbent president. According to the German publication, he is accused of facilitating contracts with state institutions through a network of lobbyists. Lulinha denies the charges, and Lula himself has stated that if his son has committed a violation, he should be investigated and convicted or acquitted accordingly.
The scandal surrounding the bankrupt Banco Master and its former owner, Daniel Vorcaro, is also causing serious turmoil. The case has also affected members of the Supreme Court, including Judge Alexandre de Moraes, who played a leading role in the proceedings against former President Jair Bolsonaro. Published materials have raised questions about the relationship between Vorcaro and representatives of the judiciary, with some of the allegations remaining the subject of investigations and political disputes.
However, the scandal also affects Flávio Bolsonaro himself. On September 11, Reuters reported that the senator was being investigated for alleged corruption and money laundering in connection with Banco Master. The investigation concerns the financing of a film about his father, Jair Bolsonaro. Flavio Bolsonaro denies any wrongdoing.
The election campaign is thus unfolding in an unusual situation - the main political camps are mutually using investigations and accusations against their opponents, while trust in some state institutions is also becoming a campaign theme.
Flavio Bolsonaro is trying to inherit his father's political base. Jair Bolsonaro supported him in the presidential race after he himself could not participate in the elections. Flavio positions himself as a representative of the Brazilian right and maintains close relations with US President Donald Trump.
Lula, for his part, is fighting for a fourth, non-consecutive presidential term.
The outcome of the elections also has implications for the foreign policy course of the largest country in Latin America. Lula maintains active relations with the BRICS countries and strives for a more independent position for Brazil vis-à-vis the great powers, while Flavio Bolsonaro is politically closer to Trump and takes different positions on a number of international issues.
The first round of the presidential election is scheduled for October 4. If none of the candidates receives more than half of the valid votes, the runoff will be on October 25. Based on current sociological data, a possible second round between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro is emerging as the main scenario, but the surveys measure momentary attitudes and do not predetermine the outcome of the vote.