Approximately 451,000 additional people could die from extreme heat worldwide because of the strong El Niño episode, which is expected to continue until early 2027. The forecast covers the period from June 2026 to February 2027 and was prepared by the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago.
The estimate has not yet undergone peer review. The researchers also forecast a 44% increase in the number of days with exceptionally high temperatures compared with typical years. This refers to additional mortality, calculated by comparing it with the expected figures under normal weather conditions.
Nigeria Could Be the Worst Affected
The highest number of heat-related deaths is expected in Nigeria. Approximately 31,400 deaths are forecast for the period from September 2026 to February 2027. Indonesia follows with approximately 19,300, and Sudan with around 17,600.
Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and a professor of economics at the University of Chicago, said scientists can now calculate not only the impact of temperatures on crops, but also the potential human cost.
“That is such a large number that it may numb us, but behind it are parents and children, grandparents, neighbors, and people who go to work and care for their families,” Greenstone said.
Warning of the Risk of Epidemics
Colin Carlson, an associate professor of epidemiology at Yale University, warned that the consequences of El Niño in 2026–2027 could reach a scale comparable to a pandemic crisis. According to him, extreme heat alone could cause nearly half a million deaths, while the spread of dengue, cholera and other infectious diseases could also increase at the same time.
“The preliminary analysis shows that nearly half a million people could die from extreme heat alone, without including epidemics of dengue, cholera and other infectious diseases, which could also emerge simultaneously,” Carlson said.
Carlson called on the World Health Organization to treat the phenomenon as a public health emergency of international concern. He compared the potential consequences with international health emergencies that have already been declared, but there is no indication that the organization has granted such a status to El Niño.
What Meteorologists Expect
El Niño is a natural warming of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It alters atmospheric circulation and can lead to unusual heat, droughts, torrential rainfall, floods and wildfires in different parts of the world.
The World Meteorological Organization expects the phenomenon to peak in December 2026 and retain its influence until early 2027. According to the organization, El Niño will increase the risk of extreme heat, drought and heavy rainfall against a backdrop of record-warm oceans and continued global warming.
The forecast of 451,000 deaths refers only to the impact of heat. It does not include potential fatalities from floods, wildfires, drought, water shortages and infectious diseases.
Sources: obozrevatel.com, cbsnews.com, apnews.com