NATO should not invite Ukraine to join the alliance, 60 political scientists from the US and Canada wrote in an open letter quoted by the “Guardian”. At the upcoming Pact summit, some (member states) are pushing for Ukraine to move significantly closer to membership, for example by setting out a process for Kyiv's accession. Any such step would be unreasonable, writes the experts' letter, quoted by BTA.
If Ukraine becomes a member of the alliance after the end of the current war, under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, the US and its allies will be considered committed to fighting Russian forces in Ukraine if Russia invades the country again, political scientists note.
They point out that US President Joe Biden has ruled out the direct use of US military force since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, and point out that both Biden and his predecessor in office, Donald Trump, have warned that the conflict could escalate into World War III.
„For the same reason why the United States should not go to war against Russia over Ukraine today, it should not commit to war against Russia over Ukraine in the future,” the political scientists write.
They comment that the view that Ukraine joining NATO would deter Russia from invading the country again is “wishful thinking”.
Since Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014, NATO allies have demonstrated by their actions that they do not believe the stakes of the conflict, while significant, justify the cost of war. If Ukraine joins NATO, Russia will have the opportunity to test and potentially split the alliance. The result could be outright war or the collapse of the Pact, they also note.
Delaying Ukraine's NATO membership does a disservice to Ukrainians who are bravely fighting for their independence. But the closer NATO gets to promising that Ukraine will join the alliance after the war ends, the greater the incentive for Russia to continue to wage war and kill Ukrainians to prevent that, the political scientists write.
According to them, Kiev is facing a difficult choice with huge consequences for the future of the country. “Ukrainians deserve to assess their strategic options with a clear view, not through rose-colored glasses put on by outsiders who do not have the support of their countries,“, the experts comment.
In their words, the challenges posed by Russia can be overcome without Ukraine having to join NATO. Moving Kiev closer to membership in the alliance could exacerbate the problem, making the country the site of a prolonged showdown between the world's two leading nuclear powers and reinforcing Vladimir Putin's argument that he is fighting the West in Ukraine, not the people of Ukraine.
„The purpose of NATO is not to show respect to other countries; it is to defend NATO territory and strengthen the security of NATO members. Admitting Ukraine would reduce the security of the United States and NATO allies, at a significant risk to all, political scientists note.