After nine months of conflict across the border with the Lebanese group "Hezbollah" Israel claims to be preparing for a full-scale war in Lebanon, warning that the time for diplomacy is over, writes the "Washington Post", quoted by BTA.
The American daily notes that "Hezbollah", a group and political party that grew out of the civil war in Lebanon to become one of the most powerful non-state players in the Middle East, has been preparing for this moment since 2006. since Israeli forces last invaded the country.
The group has received large supplies of missiles and drones from its main backer, Iran, and has only recently begun manufacturing its own weapons. It also enjoys air defense capabilities that most such groups lack.
Its arsenal includes guided and unguided rockets, anti-tank artillery, ballistic and anti-ship cruise missiles, and explosive-laden drones, portending a conflict that could reach far into Israeli territory, the Washington Post reported.
According to estimates by observers, "Hezbollah" has between 130,000 and 150,000 shells and rockets, more than four times what its Hamas allies are believed to have. had in stock before the Gaza war. And the Lebanese group claims to command more than 100,000 fighters, well over twice the highest estimates of the Palestinian Islamist movement's pre-war fighting force.
Most of Hezbollah's weapons are lower-grade, unguided munitions that could threaten Israel's air defenses if fired in large numbers. Of even greater concern to Israel are the precision munitions the group has claimed to possess.
The Lebanese group Hezbollah keeps its arsenal a closely guarded secret, leaving weapons experts to speculate about the full extent of its capabilities. Much of what is publicly known comes from statements by the group and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who says his fighters have used only "some of our weapons" in the escalating attacks on northern Israel, the Washington Post reported.
The Israeli army has responded to the strikes with intense shelling of Lebanon, mainly in the south of the country, using fighter jets, tanks, Hermes drones and white phosphorus munitions.
Tens of thousands of civilians have been displaced on both sides of the border, the American newspaper said.
According to the Washington Post, at least 94 civilians and more than 300 Hezbollah fighters have been killed in Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The Lebanese government estimates the attacks caused $1.5 billion in damage and destroyed about 1,700 buildings.
According to Israeli officials, the Hezbollah attacks killed 18 soldiers and 12 civilians. They also damaged hundreds of homes and caused fires that destroyed more than 40,000 acres of land.
Rockets and shells
Hezbollah first began striking northern Israel a day after militants led by the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas invaded the country, killing about 1,200 people. The group has said it will continue fighting until Israel agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza.
The Lebanese group has been using a variety of short-range missiles, initially targeting tanks and other equipment near the border, before moving on to attacks on military bases and barracks.
On November 11, Nasrallah revealed that Hezbollah was using Jarkan missiles. An improvised rocket weapon that can be easily assembled, the Jarkan missile has become a “characteristic weapon of Iranian-backed groups in the region,” said Fabian Hinz, a defense and military analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
According to the Israeli think tank Alma Research and Education Center, The weapon can be fired from a ground-based launcher and cause "massive destruction" up to 500 meters from the impact site.
General Munir Shehadeh, a former Lebanese government coordinator for the UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon, said the "Jourkan" missiles were first used and tested by "Hezbollah" in Syria, where Nasrallah sent fighters to support President Bashar al-Assad during the country's civil war.
Last November, Nasrallah also revealed that the group uses Katyusha rockets. Originally manufactured by the former Soviet Union and technologically copied by Iran, they can travel 12 to 24 miles (about 19 to a little over 38 km) and are fired in series, according to the Washington Post.
Although they are unguided, Hinz said Hezbollah "can fire a lot of them because they are cheap and effective at certain distances".
In an interview in early July with Hezbollah"s Al-Manar television, an artillery officer identified as Hajj Mohammed Ali, who spoke with a blurred face and a modified voice, said the group was capable of firing 100 Katyusha rockets at once from truck-mounted launchers.
The Iranian-made Rad rockets have been used by Hezbollah" in the deadly attack on the Israeli port city of Haifa during the 2006 war, although they have not yet been put into service during this round of fighting.
In January, after Israel killed top commander Wissam Tawil, "Hezbollah" began demonstrating more advanced missiles, including the Iranian model of "Falak" missiles. Next came the camera-equipped, small, guided anti-tank "Almas" missiles, which can penetrate heavy armor.
Larger guided ballistic missiles, such as the "Fateh 110", pose a greater threat, as they have a range of up to 185 miles (just over 297 km) and can target Tel Aviv and even Jerusalem, the American daily notes. Similar missiles were used by Iran in an unprecedented but well-coordinated airstrike on Israel earlier this year, giving the Israeli military time to intercept them. It is unclear what impact they could have if launched from across the border into Lebanon, especially in large numbers.
In 2018, Nasrallah said that "Hezbollah" had precision-guided munitions, but the group had never tested or publicly demonstrated them. More recently, in 2022, the Hezbollah leader said that the group had the ability to "transform our missiles ... into precision missiles" with the help of Iranian weapons experts.
Analysts say he may be referring to something similar to the "SPICE" kits that the United States provides to Israel to convert "silent bombs" into precision munitions, the "Washington Post" reported.
The "PGM" missiles are more effective because "they are equipped with active seekers," noted Shan Sheikh, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and deputy director of its missile defense program.
"Nasrallah has spoken about it, and (the Israel Defense Forces - IDF) have expressed concern. ... But it's hard to say anything definitively without evidence," he added.
"Hezbollah" keeps its arsenal secret, Hintz said. It took the group 13 years to reveal that it had used a S-802 anti-ship missile to sink an Israeli vessel in 2006.
Anti-ship missiles can also be used to strike offshore oil platforms, particularly in Israel's Leviathan gas field, a target the group hinted at in a video last month.
Drones
"Hezbollah" has a large fleet of drones that vary in size, shape and capabilities, the newspaper notes. "Washington Post".
According to official statements, the group first began using explosive-laden drones on November 2 in an attack on an Israeli military post in the Golan Heights, footage of which was later shared on its official Telegram page. According to the IDF, two servicemen were injured at the time.
Hintz said that the type of drone used in this and other attacks was most likely modeled after the Iranian "Ababil-T" drone, which according to the "Alma Research and Education Center" can travel about 75 miles (about 120 km) with nearly 90 kilograms of explosives.
In mid-May, after Israeli forces invaded the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah, "Hezbollah" released a more advanced version that can fire two missiles and explode on impact. The IDF said the drone was first used in a May 16 attack on an Israeli military garrison near the border, injuring three soldiers.
Although Iran is Hezbollah"s main weapons supplier, the group has become more self-reliant in recent years. "Today, we in Lebanon, and for a long time, have started producing drones," Nasrallah said in 2022, a claim he repeated in June.
"Hezbollah" also uses civilian drones for reconnaissance and to check for gaps in Israel's air defenses. In late June, a drone flew undetected over the city of Haifa for hours, recording footage of strategic sites. The Alma Research and Education Center believes it was an Iranian-made Hudhud-1 drone, but Hezbollah has not yet confirmed the model.
Air Defense
It is unusual for a non-state actor like Hezbollah to have air defense capabilities, which is a signal of the Lebanese group's readiness for war, the Washington Post reported.
According to Hinz, Hezbollah has used surface-to-air missiles, most notably the Iranian-made 358 anti-aircraft missile, to shoot down Israeli drones.
On at least two occasions, the group claims to have used more sophisticated weapons—likely the Iranian Sayyad-2S missile, Hintz noted, a radar-guided missile that can reach targets at nearly 90,000 feet (just over 27 km) against Israeli fighter jets, forcing them to retreat.
Such capabilities could pose a unique and unusual challenge to Israel's air superiority. "Hezbollah" is much better equipped than Hamas, Sheikh said.
Quantity trumps quality
In early June, in response to the assassination of a high-ranking commander, Hezbollah fired 150 rockets and 30 drones in a single attack, the largest such attack on Israel from the north. After another Israeli airstrike on a Hezbollah commander, the group then upped the ante again, firing more than 200 rockets.
In the event of an all-out war, these "saturation attacks," in which hundreds of small rockets are fired simultaneously, could hit Israel's Iron Dome, the newspaper said. "Washington Post".
"They already used up a lot of "Iron Dome" interceptors during the Gaza war," Hintz noted, asking, "How many more do they have left?"
The "Fateh" ballistic missiles could also be fired in volleys, weapons experts say, raising other critical questions about Israel's level of preparedness to defend itself.
"How effective are Israel's interceptors, known as "David's Sling" and "Arrow" against these missiles?" Sheikh asks, referring to Israel's medium- and long-range missile defense systems.
"Can the IDF detect, track, and fire on these missiles as they prepare to launch?"
"There are many things we don't know," he concluded.