“Trump promised to end the war in 24 hours. That's why our unit has ambitious plans for the weekend”, wrote jokingly on Facebook journalist Pavlo Kazarin, who is currently serving in the Ukrainian army. When it became clear that Republican Donald Trump won the US presidential election, Ukrainian social media was filled with similar insinuations.
However, in other places there is also an assessment that Trump's victory is a black day for Ukraine. “The world has gone in the wrong direction again”, notes banker Serhiy Furza. Opinions are also creeping in that cooperation with any US government is possible.
Some Ukrainians compare Trump's victory to that of President Volodymyr Zelensky and his party “Servant of the People” in 2019, as it also has a majority in parliament.
Zelensky congratulates Trump
President Zelensky was one of the first to congratulate Trump on his election victory. He did so on the X platform, which is owned by Trump supporter Elon Musk.
„I think of our wonderful meeting with President Trump in September, during which we spoke in detail about the strategic partnership between Ukraine and the United States, the plan for victory and ways to end Russian aggression against Ukraine. I appreciate President Trump's commitment to the "peace through strength" approach. It is this principle that can bring a just peace in Ukraine closer. I hope we can implement it together," Zelensky wrote, calling Trump's victory impressive.
Foreign Minister Andriy Szybiga, in turn, expressed hope that Kiev and Washington will cooperate to strengthen the Ukrainian-American strategic partnership and achieve a comprehensive, just and lasting peace.
Hope for long-range weapons
Olexander Krayev of the Ukrainian Prism analytical center, specializing in foreign policy and international security, believes that peace in Ukraine cannot be expected as soon as Trump promised during his election campaign - to begin with, the new American president will have other problems. Therefore, Kiev should use the time until Trump takes office to push its own interests, especially when it comes to authorizing the use of Western long-range weapons against military targets in Russia.
“Trump will certainly not immediately get down to foreign policy, as he first needs to come to an agreement with Congress, agree on a cabinet and undertake many internal reforms,” Kraev told DW. While Joe Biden is still president, Kiev should at least signal him now to show more courage and make the difficult decisions that Ukraine expects.
The expert believes that Trump may later continue this path if Kiev shows readiness for peace negotiations, but Moscow continues to insist on its conditions towards Ukraine. “Trump's return is not a catastrophe or an apocalypse for Ukraine, but there are risks, since with regard to Trump there is never certainty what results can be achieved. That's why Ukraine has a lot of work ahead of it," Krayev emphasized.
Will peace talks come to fruition?
Many observers in Ukraine do not rule out the possibility that Trump and his team will try to force both the Ukrainian and Russian sides to make peace through various levers. Such are the expectations of international politics expert Petro Burkovsky. He told DW that with Trump's victory, uncertainty in US policy towards Ukraine is growing. Burkovsky suggests that Kiev will be forced to hold peace talks.
„If the Trump team, under the current circumstances, proposes a plan in which the current front line would be designated as the border of Ukraine, and finds arguments to force Russia to agree to this, then we will have to accept these conditions. However, if Trump fails to convince Russia to end the war, Ukraine could receive all the necessary means to continue the war and defeat Russia. Because the last thing Trump wants is to appear weak in foreign policy terms," Burkovsky said.
Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko does not rule out that under Trump, negotiations on Ukraine's NATO membership could be blocked, which would be a gift to Putin.
Kiev must make an effort to get help
Ukrainian politicians from different camps agree that Kiev will have to make many more efforts to keep the United States on its side in the war started by Russia. “Trump believes, as Zelensky once believed, that he will look Putin in the eye and solve all the problems. Some of his voters are also convinced of this. But in the end, Ukrainian soldiers will have to decide the fate of the world,” Mykola Knyazhytsky from the opposition faction “European Solidarity” wrote on Facebook.
It should not be assumed that during Donald Trump's second term, Ukraine will automatically receive assistance, says Yaroslav Yurchyshyn from the faction “Golos”. He believes that Putin will be prompted to start negotiations - on terms that are unfavorable to him. But they won't be ideal for Kiev either, so Ukraine needs to be very careful, he adds.
Author: Liliya Rzheutskaya