In the trial for the alleged embezzlement of European money, Marine Le Pen is at risk not only from imprisonment and fine, and from exclusion from the elections. Thus, her presidential project for 2027 may fail.
Usually Marine Le Pen exudes confidence. But when it comes to the possible consequences of the trial for the alleged embezzlement of European money, she is not at all easy. "They are calling for my political death," Le Pen said on the TV channel TF1.
In the trial against her, her party and 24 other people from the party's circle, the prosecutor's office demands that Marine Le Pen be fined, imprisoned, but also banned from participating in elections in France for five years. Prosecutors are also pushing for exécution provisoire, meaning the sentence could take effect immediately, and a possible appeal would not delay it.
I am not naive enough to ignore this message, said Le Pen on TF1. She spoke of a "serious attack on democracy" and an "irreparable decision without appeal", if it is indeed decided that she will no longer be able to stand for election.
"National Assembly" change your strategy
So far, Marine Le Pen and her far-right party "National Assembly" (SC) avoided talking about political process. But after the prosecution announced the penalties it sought, that strategy changed. Speaking to the German public broadcaster ARD, political scientist Benjamin Morel called this a "flight forward". With this twist in their communication strategy, they are trying to portray themselves as a victim. "The demands of the prosecutor's office are a heavy blow to the party, and therefore it must explain to its voters that the National Assembly is the victim here and thus unite them behind it," says Morel.
Le Pen is at the "center of an organized system"
According to the prosecution, Marine Le Pen stands at "the center of an organized system" for misappropriation of funds, with which her party "National Assembly" has enriched itself. According to the prosecutors, however, unlike other similar processes - such as the one from the beginning of 2024 against the MoDem party, the case with the National Assembly is particularly difficult.
Since December 2016, France has generally had one mandatory penalty when it comes to misappropriation of public funds: exclusion from elections. If the judges now accept the sentences requested by the prosecution, Marine Le Pen's presidential project for 2027 will be seriously threatened - something that could cause a political earthquake.
Will the political landscape change?
For this reason, the demands of the prosecutor's office cause irritation even among some of Le Pen's political opponents. "The judicial system should not wage political war against the National Assembly. I am not talking about a political process, but we should not believe that the judicial system can do our job. "Just because Marine Le Pen may not be eligible to participate in the 2027 elections, the National Assembly and the far-right will not become weaker," said left-wing politician Francois Ruffin.
It remains to be seen how much this process will change the political landscape in France. The hearings end today. And a decision is expected in January or February 2025.