The realities show that peace between Ukraine and Russia is impossible. We can only talk about a truce, which will not be easily achieved due to the conditions set by Russia and its unwillingness to accept guarantees for the existence of Ukraine as an independent state. This was said by the vice president of the Atlantic Club in Bulgaria, Elena Poptodorova, in the program "Bulgaria, Europe and the World in Focus" on Radio "Focus“.
According to her, a truce between the warring parties can be reached this year.
She noted that in the last days before Donald Trump enters the White House, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine are trying to establish the realities of the military terrain.
"These negotiations must necessarily be based on military realities. Ukraine is trying to penetrate deeper into the Kursk region, Russia, for its part, is trying to penetrate the territories it claims and wants to separate as enclaves of sorts. These are the last days in which both sides will try to win back some advantages that will enter the next negotiations“, Poptodorova explained.
One of the conditions in the negotiations from the Russian side will be the lifting of economic sanctions against the Russian Federation. According to her, Russia would not accept, even theoretically, Ukraine's membership in NATO. "For years, this was the condition for Ukraine to be a sovereign and independent state, along with the rejection of nuclear weapons and maintaining neutrality. It does not seem possible to me that Russia's position will suddenly change in favor of Ukraine's membership in the Alliance", commented the vice president of the Atlantic Club.
Donald Trump is using the carrot-and-stick approach and it will be applied depending on the flexibility of both sides in the negotiation process, Elena Poptodorova believes.
"If Russia is not flexible and does not accept security guarantees for Ukraine that would give it the right to exist as a sovereign state, then President Trump would provide full military assistance to Ukraine. And vice versa – "If Ukraine does not agree to a tactical loss of about 1/5 of its territory and does not accept a freeze on its NATO membership, Trump would throw all his support at Putin." But so far, we have not had a clear position from those who are designated to be the executors of the new administration's foreign policy - the State Department, the Pentagon and the National Security Advisor," the diplomat further commented.