Israel's attack on Iran has led to a sharp rise in oil prices, with Brent trading at $74 a barrel on Tuesday morning - down from below $70 a week ago, BBC Russian Service notes.
Oil prices have been falling since early April, but the military escalation in the Middle East has revived concerns about supply stability, especially if the Strait of Hormuz, a key point for global oil trade, is blocked. In such a scenario, the price hike could be not only sharper but also more prolonged.
However, there are also counter-factors at work in the market. These include increased supply from OPEC countries and a slowdown in the global economy caused by the new trade war initiated by US President Donald Trump. Slowed growth will negatively affect fuel demand.
For Russia, the rise in prices could have a positive but limited effect on the budget. Russian Urals crude oil usually trades at a discount of about $10 to Brent. This year's budget was calculated assuming significantly higher crude prices, but reality has forced an adjustment to the forecast for Urals to $56 per barrel.
The state of the Russian economy remains weak, and slowing growth means lower tax revenues.
According to analysts, only a sustained rise in oil prices would allow the Russian authorities to reduce the budget deficit. In the case of short-term spikes followed by declines, the impact on the budget is limited.
However, Moscow has significant fiscal reserves that can offset temporary deficits if prices fall again. A budget crisis is not expected for now, but Russia's ability to maintain stability increasingly depends on external geopolitical circumstances.