A cyclone brings new precipitation to our country and passes through almost the same trajectory as last week. It will affect much of Eastern Bulgaria. We expect significant amounts of rain - more and longer than last week. On October 7, the cyclone will move towards the Black Sea and the total amount of precipitation will be over 100-150 liters per square meter. After a dry summer, Bulgaria is today facing a series of intense precipitation and floods. The National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH) has announced a red code for dangerous weather in eight regions of the country. What should we be prepared for and how serious are the forecasts… Meteorologist Chief speaks to FACTI. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Anastasia Stoycheva from the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology.
– Ms. Stoycheva, until recently, there was a drought in some areas such as Pleven and Lovech. Now we are suddenly struggling with too much water. What awaits us?
- Yes, that's right. The two Mediterranean cyclones that formed in recent days and bring precipitation to the country will compensate for the lack of water from the summer. It is good that the summer in our country is dry and this is normal, but the problem is that there is not much snowfall in the winter, and the spring was also drier. Now the rains, although useful, lead to floods, especially in areas where the infrastructure is not prepared for this.
– What amount of precipitation do you expect in the coming days?
- In Eastern and especially in Northeastern Bulgaria, we expect significant amounts of rain – over 80 to 120 liters per square meter. That is why NIMH issued a red code for these areas. The precipitation will last about three days – longer than the previous situation, which lasted about 48 hours.
– How much of this water can the ground absorb?
- The soil is already wet, there are areas where the ground is saturated. Where there are no infrastructure problems and there are green areas, the precipitation will be absorbed by the underlying surface. But in heavily built-up areas and in the absence of drainage, there is a serious risk of flooding.
– Is this precipitation above or below the climatic norms?
- Definitely above the norm. In Western and Central Bulgaria there are areas with precipitation up to 2 times above the norm. If we add the precipitation from the second cyclone, up to four times more precipitation will accumulate than usual for the season. This is a serious challenge for the infrastructure and requires very careful monitoring.
– Where is the red code in effect and what should people do?
- The warning is in effect for eight districts: Varna, Burgas, Dobrich, Shumen, Silistra, Razgrad, Targovishte and Yambol. The red code means increased caution and strict adherence to the instructions of local authorities – to avoid travel, low-lying areas near rivers and ravines.
– When will the situation start to calm down?
- From Thursday, precipitation in Southern Bulgaria will stop, and the clouds will start to break. Temperatures will start to rise – minimum between 5 and 10 degrees, maximum up to 18-20. On Saturday and Sunday, it will rain only in isolated places, but without danger, as precipitation will be mostly light. At the beginning of next week, temperatures will remain around 20 degrees.
– What is your main warning to people?
- To act responsibly – to monitor forecasts, not to underestimate signals and to protect human life. Precipitation is typical for the season, it is nice for autumn to rain, but with such wet ground and poor drainage, the consequences can be severe.