These are not the first sanctions by Washington against Russia, but they are the first of Donald Trump's new term. The sanctions come just a week after Ukrainian President Zelensky's visit to Washington. Trump wants to show that he is acting firmly, but the goal is to reach an agreement, not a new escalation. This was said by economist and analyst Prof. Assen Assenov on the show “This Saturday" on bTV.
Accordingly, this is a political signal and part of diplomatic pressure to accelerate peace talks between Moscow and Kiev.
At this stage, according to experts, the real economic effect is minimal.
“The Russian ruble depreciated slightly, company shares fell, and the price of oil rose by about 7-8% - relatively moderately”, said Asenov.
He expects the main pressure to be on the diplomatic scene, not on the real market. However, the sanctions create uncertainty for the European and Bulgarian markets, where “Lukoil” is of key importance.
Economist Prof. Assen Assenov explained that the sanctions have a global political effect, but did not rule out the possibility of temporary concessions for individual countries.
„We know that there have already been 19 rounds of sanctions, and yet Europe continued to import Russian fuels for over 200 billion euros. The world economy has its own laws - long-term contracts cannot be interrupted for a day."
According to him, the new measures are also part of the diplomatic game between Moscow and Washington.
According to Martin Vladimirov, who, as director of the „Energy and Climate" program at the Center for the Study of Democracy, the effect of the sanctions will yet be felt, both on the Russian economy and on the fuel market in Bulgaria.
If urgent measures are not taken, after November 21 our country may enter a “Serbian scenario” with a risk to supplies, he believes.
The United States sanctions against Russian oil giants “Lukoil” and “Rosneft” are the heaviest slap in the face for Russia since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Vladimirov said.
“Lukoil” and “Rosneft” produce about half of Russia's crude oil and are responsible for two-thirds of exports. "Therefore, these sanctions have a real potential to block financial flows to the Kremlin," he added.
According to the expert, after November 21, when the restrictions come into full force, no international bank will be able to service payments to “Lukoil”. “This also applies to the Bulgarian refinery in Burgas - it is a small part of the large structure, but there is no way the US can make an exception just because of it,” Vladimirov added.
Even if payments are made in euros, not dollars, the problem remains, since 80-90% of financial transactions in the world are cleared through the American system, he explained.
”Lukoil” is already under sanctions. Counterparties of the sanctioned companies have one month in which to terminate their business relationships with these enterprises. “Yesterday you had indications in the media that one of the major banks that serves “Lukoil” in our country has stated that business relations should be terminated and the company's accounts in this financial institution should be closed. This will probably happen with the other banks as well. Yes, the company will look for loopholes, will look for ways to transfer funds to such institutions that are willing to risk falling under the blows of secondary US sanctions, but the truth is that on November 21, no international bank will service the transfer of funds for the purchase of crude oil. And the refinery constantly buys oil from all over the world," explained Vladimirov.
If no action is taken, our country risks being left without fuel supplies or prices rising sharply.
“On November 21, we could find ourselves in a situation like Serbia - there the refinery stopped working after its derogation was revoked, and the country is living off its strategic reserves," warned Vladimirov.
Bulgaria maintains reserves of three months of crude oil by law, but they cannot be a long-term solution.