In the show "Mrezhata" on the "Hristo Botev" program, Prof. Todor Tagarev commented on the latest developments surrounding the war in Ukraine, the conflict with Iran and the impact on regional and global security.
The former Minister of Defense outlined several key risks and drew parallels between the two wars that currently determine the international agenda.
According to Prof. Tagarev, the main reason for the US and Israeli operation against Iran is the danger of the regime in Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons.
"Nuclear weapons are categorically the main reason for starting this operation. Iran is 12 to 5 or 12 to one minute away from developing a nuclear weapon."
He stressed that Iran has advanced missile systems, drones and proxy groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, which are "powered, directed and equipped by Iran".
"If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, the next country to invest is Saudi Arabia. Turkey will not wait. This would be a huge problem for global security."
Prof. Tagarev warned that "President Donald Trump may lose interest in 4 weeks. But Israel will not lose interest. For them, it is a matter of survival."
He predicted that "in the remaining weeks, Iran's air defense systems will be completely destroyed. Israel and the US will be able to strike whenever they want."
In the conversation, Professor Tagarev also commented on Russia's role in the conflict:
"The myth of the powerful Russian army was crossed out. Kiev in three days, the English Channel in five days... And they stayed in Bakhmut for a year and a half and could not pass."
He emphasized that Moscow is in "strategic retreat" and cannot help Iran, despite the declared strategic partnership:
"Russia has nothing to help with. Their vaunted complexes in Iran - S-400 - Israel and the US bypass them as they please."
Prof. Tagarev also noted the change in Ukraine's role:
"4 years ago, Ukraine wanted NATO to close the sky. Now other countries are turning to Ukraine for help. And Ukraine says: ‘We will help’."
He emphasized that Ukrainian solutions against drones are more effective and cheaper than Western ones:
"You can't shoot down cheap drones with a missile for 1-4 million. The Ukrainians found a solution. This is world recognition of their capacity."
Bulgaria and why we are unprepared again
Prof. Tagarev commented on the deployment of American aircraft in our country and the reactions of the institutions. He specified that the decision was made by the Zhelyazkov cabinet and probably went through the Council of Ministers or was coordinated between the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense, but:
"The Minister of Defense is obliged to immediately inform the National Assembly and the President. And this happened two weeks later."
Regarding the chronic underfunding of defense, he was categorical:
"After 2014, a commitment was made for 2% of GDP. But our budget continued to decline – to 1.1%."
Tagarev also recalled Boyko Borisov's position: "Who said he only wanted boats, sailboats and tourists in the Black Sea."
He emphasized that the "Denkov" cabinet had increased defense spending:
"From 1.55% to 2.05% of GDP - that's what we did with both budgets. Defense spending was almost fully utilized."
"It's not just a question of money. It's a question of how it's spent"
Prof. Tagarev also commented on the topic of the modernization of the Bulgarian Army:
"It is not just a question of money, it is also a question of how this money is spent. And once spent - how effectively the system works to provide defense capabilities."
He gave an example of the radars, for which 120 million leva were provided in 2024:
"The commission chose a supplier of 3D radars. The price was about 300 million leva and the government did not sign a contract. And they would have been here by now.
"After they overthrew the ‘Denkov’ cabinet, they allocated another 500 million leva. Half a billion extra for completing the airbase. And why didn't they invite the planes to land there, but they are at the civilian airport in Sofia?"
"Two and a half years have passed since the signing of the ‘European Sky Shield’ initiative. Now we hear that we will receive an IRIS-T complex. But it is not clear - do we have contracts, do we have payments, when will it come?"
And he asked the key question:
"Where is the money going? There is money. In my opinion, the money is going en masse into construction. Not into weapons systems."
"We have more modern F-16s than the Greeks. Where are our planes?"
"The Greeks will help us. And we have more modern planes than them – F-16 Block 70. Where are our planes? Now we are in 2026 and we have 8 planes here standing. What happens to our F-16s, while we wait for the Greeks to protect us."
Prof. Tagarev listed more examples:
The patrol ships launched in 2023, "should have been operationally ready long ago".
The first "Stryker" combat vehicles were supposed to be provided to the army in October 2025:
"The first ones were supposed to be provided in October last year. Nobody remembers. Then they said February. Now – it is unknown when. The question is also to what extent the units where these machines will go are ready to welcome them."
"During our cabinet, there was no frivolity. They called me every other day to the National Assembly. If I were a minister now, for what is happening right now, they would tear me apart. And today – silence. I don't see any criticism. And I can't explain that."
"This is not the time, in the conditions of an election campaign, to raise this issue. I can't name three specialists in Bulgaria who understand nuclear weapons and nuclear umbrellas."
He warned that such a discussion could be dangerously manipulated:
"The public is massively incompetent on the subject. Someone will utter a sentence and start instilling fear: ‘Horror! Nuclear weapons!’ This is a very complex debate that we haven't even started. Initiating such a conversation now is counterproductive. It will only bring more fear."