The new prime minister will most likely be named Rumen Radev, it is possible that he will govern with the PP-DB, with which they will have 125 deputies. The forecast is by Prof. Mihail Konstantinov. According to him, it is entirely possible that Radev will govern with Boyko Borisov. There will be no new elections after the early vote for at least a year, Konstantinov believes, quoted by euronews.bg.
The escalation of the war in the Middle East and rising fuel prices may have an impact on public attitudes before the early elections, believes mathematician and election expert Prof. Mihail Konstantinov. According to him, the increase in prices will probably be permanent. "Not only will prices change, they will remain permanently high," he said, explaining that even if oil production is restored, it will take months for production and transportation to normalize.
According to Konstantinov, economic difficulties can affect voter sentiment, but it is difficult to predict who the discontent will be directed at. "The question is who the Bulgarian will be angry with," he commented. The expert expressed hope for higher voter turnout, as it is key to the legitimacy of the future government. “If over 3 million people come out to vote, it will be better for the new government, whoever it may be“, pointed out Prof. Konstantinov.
He also presented an indicative forecast for the distribution of mandates in the next parliament using the formula “90–60–35–30–20“, which, according to him, reflects the trends from various sociological surveys. “Ultimately, the election result is measured in mandates, not in percentages“, the expert emphasized. According to him, the first political force could form a majority with one of the following parties, which makes the formation of a government mathematically possible.
Konstantinov also commented on the fairness of the election process, emphasizing that the parties themselves play a key role. “The parties make the elections in Bulgaria. The entire election administration – from the Central Election Commission to the section commissions – "is appointed by them," he said. Despite the existing problems, the expert expects the vote to be "free and fair" and predicts that a government will likely be formed after the elections, albeit with a limited horizon of stability.