Many analysts expected a smear war, which is not happening at this stage. The election campaign is taking place rather calmly, with a certain clarity and sharpness, but it is mainly expressed in attacks between political opponents on social networks or on specific topics - such as shale gas or the agreement with Ukraine. So far, there has not been such a "muddy" campaign as was predicted at the beginning. As for the topic of the agreement with Ukraine, one could even talk about a more sophisticated campaign. He said this in an interview for the program "Newsroom" on Radio FOCUS political scientist Dr. Teodora Yovcheva.
According to her, there is still time until the end of the campaign, and serious conversations on topics important to society are just beginning. "We see that they are thematic – on justice, on social issues. Especially in the social sphere, there is a lot to discuss, but unfortunately, important topics are often overlooked or raised only when a scandal arises“, she pointed out.
As an example, Yovcheva gave the problems with water scarcity and water supply, which, according to her, are structural and should be addressed preventively. She also highlighted the need for long-term attention to psychiatric care, where the system is heavily burdened and understaffed, as well as to homes for the elderly. "These are human rights issues that must be approached seriously, and not only within the framework of pre-election tactics", the political scientist emphasized.
Regarding the increased activity of the Ministry of Interior in recent weeks, Yovcheva commented that it was expected against the backdrop of the 2024 elections and the violations identified then. "The expectations were for a more revisionist-minded caretaker government that would actively fight abuses, especially after the protests last year. If such actions were absent, this would be contrary to public expectations", she believes.
According to her, despite the concerns of some analysts that such actions could discourage voters, there are also factors that would stimulate them to vote. Among them are the emergence of new political entities and increased attention to the electoral process.
Yovcheva also predicts the possibility of higher voter turnout. "Historically, it is seen that with the emergence of larger new formations – as in 2001 and 2009 – activity increases. In 2021, this did not happen because the protest vote was fragmented between several entities. However, there is currently a request to consolidate this vote“, she noted, giving an example: "Progressive Bulgaria“ is submitting a request to consolidate the protest vote.
According to her, an intensification of the campaign is expected in the weeks remaining until the vote. "There will be an escalation of rhetoric and opposition, but probably within moderate limits. The main political forces realize that compromises will be necessary after the elections. In order for these compromises not to be destructive, it is wiser not to draw red lines that can subsequently be crossed“, Yovcheva pointed out.
Regarding the future government, she stated that there is a possibility of forming a government, and its stability will depend on the political will of the participants. According to her, it is possible for a different majority to be formed in the next parliament on geopolitical issues – with a more Eurosceptic and balanced rhetoric, more open to Russia: "Regardless of what the government will be, there will probably be a majority on this issue, different from what has been observed so far. In previous governments, there has often been participation of parties with a more Eurosceptic or more balanced position towards Russia, such as the Bulgarian Socialist Party, but nevertheless a parliamentary consensus has been achieved in support of Ukraine and the pro-European line. It seems to me that in the next parliament – regardless of the form of government – on geopolitical issues, a different majority will be formed.“
“Regarding the stability of a future government, a government will most likely be formed, as it would be unproductive for "Progressive Bulgaria“ to repeat the mistake of the ITN of July 2021 and not to fulfill a mandate, sending the country to new early parliamentary elections. The key question remains how many political entities this government will be built from. The expectations are for long and difficult negotiations, which will also have the public function of showing that the eventual government will be the result of serious compromises, and not of an initial agreement between the formations“, the political scientist also commented.
According to her, an important moment will be whether the BSP will manage to pass the electoral barrier, as well as whether it will be included in the composition of a future government.