Before the decisive meetings of the parliamentary committees, the disputes over the 2026 Budget are intensifying, and economists continue to doubt its stability.
In the studio of "Denyat ON AIR" Fiscal Council member Lyubomir Datsov made a critical analysis of the proposed financial plan, emphasizing that in its current form the document violates basic legal requirements for the budget deficit.
According to him, the deficit can always be modeled differently, since this is a matter of political will and management choice, but so far there have been no serious steps in this direction.
Violation of the Public Finance Act and the Excessive Deficit Procedure
"The currently submitted draft budget law de facto does not comply with the Public Finance Act," Datsov categorically stated on Bulgaria ON AIR.
He explained that Bulgaria is already in an excessive deficit procedure, which means that the European Commission is imposing on us a mandatory fiscal path with minimum values to narrow the difference between revenues and expenditures by about 0.5% to 0.7% per year. base.
According to the financier, however, the real problem is much deeper, since our country has accumulated a very high structural deficit.
The risk of an economic turning point in 2028.
"We have a 4% structural deficit, at least according to the European Commission's estimates, even more at the moment", Datsov warns.
He pointed out that according to the Fiscal Council's calculations, the years 2026 and 2027 will be some of the most favorable for our economy, but immediately after that, a turning point in the cycle and entering a mild crisis are expected in 2028.
The financier warned that if the state does not achieve a balanced fiscal point by then, in the event of a crisis, the budget will be subjected to unbearable pressure for social support.
Capital program without real labor coverage
Datsov was particularly critical of the planned capital program, which exceeds 9 billion leva.
He recalled that historically the state regularly reports about 40% non-fulfillment of planned investments due to real physical limitations on the market and lack of labor.
According to his calculations, in order to implement a similar volume of projects, the construction sector will need twice as many workers as are currently available.
"In order to do this, there must be twice as many physical workers. There are stipulations - part of these billions go to batteries in the private sector, which is not directly related to state construction," commented Datsov.
He also expressed serious doubt about the claims of the ruling party about unpaid past debts amounting to nearly one billion leva, pointing out that such claims are often used for political purposes.
"I have little doubt that so much money has not been paid, and that is biased. We have watched this game many times over time, and after a few months, it almost always turns out to be something else and not so scary,“ added the financier.
According to him, the best solution in this case is for the disputed funds to be allocated to a reserve fund under conditions, instead of being in the general budget account.
Administrative capacity: Accountants instead of economists
At the end of his analysis, Lyubomir Datsov drew attention to the lack of administrative capacity in the ministries, where the budget directorates work more like accountants than like economists who calculate the effectiveness of spending.
This, in his words, prevents real reforms from being made in sectors such as healthcare and education, where billions of public funds continue to flow without visible results.
"In the medium-term budget framework, the deficit is not planned to enter any norms at all," concluded Datsov, emphasizing that without a clear management vision and concrete steps for reforms, next year's budget will not be able to solve the accumulated structural problems. problems in public finances.