2 pm ·
The loss of Avdeevka was expected. What surprised many was the speed – the military operation took place in a flash, literally in a few days.
After the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the war of attrition entered a new phase. By the end of autumn, it was seen that the Ukrainian army no longer had the potential to continue offensive operations, and at the end of the year a brief equilibrium was established on the front. But in the last two months, the Russian army has demonstrated an advantage and controls the dynamics of military operations. In this context, the fall of Avdeevka was a logical event.
A number of military analysts see the fall of Avdeevka as a turning point that will increase the dynamics of military operations. New breakthroughs are expected in the Ukrainian defense – in the regions of Rabotino, Urozhainoe, Novomykhailovka, Bakhmut, Kupyansk, where a significant concentration of Russian troops and equipment is observed.
Panics of the collapse of large sections of Ukrainian defenses are now real, triggering top European and American diplomacy. Zelensky has increasingly accused the US, and more specifically the Republican Party, of blocking promised military and financial aid. The High Representative for Foreign Affairs of the European Union, Josel Burrell, desperately called for an urgent delivery of weapons, because in the next 3 months the situation will radically change. Against this background, the long-range missiles requested by Ukraine will probably be provided sooner, which will increase its opportunities to shell Crimea.
However, a problem remains the front line, which the Ukrainian army is holding with increasing difficulty. With artillery shells in short supply, the temptation to use banned warfare poisons is real. This possibility is already being discussed in some media. After the widespread use of the banned cluster bombs, the red line and ethical norms of warfare have been crossed. The critical situation on the front raises the risk of an uncontrollable escalation in the use of more and more prohibited weapons of mass destruction by both sides.