Peace with some compromise will not lead to the disintegration of Ukraine. She has rallied and is not threatened if she achieves peace. Russia has no potential to threaten the whole of Ukraine.
This is what historian Prof. Iskra Baeva told BNR.
Neither Russia's thesis nor Ukraine's thesis could be realized in full. Russia cannot definitively win the war in Ukraine and is ready for a compromise, she pointed out.
"It doesn't seem realistic to me that either side will completely give up what they want. This leads to the question of surrender. The time has come to bring diplomacy back into this war."
Prof. Baeva contested the "absolutist, idealistic, ideological point of view – even that there is a war between democracy and authoritarianism":
"I don't think that only democratic countries are on the side of Ukraine. I do not think that democracy in Ukraine is exemplary. This is an ideology, and the time has come for the pragmatists."
"I do not think at all that it is possible for Ukraine to fall, to be taken over. Not possible. This can be seen from the course of the war. It became a positional war, with little change in the front line. I don't see an option in which Ukraine will be absorbed by Russia, as well as Russia capitulating", comments Prof. Iskra Baeva in the program "Saturday 150".
"Russian military and economic forces have limited potential, they can win in some direction, but they cannot make a big victory. It is categorically not possible for them to take over all of Ukraine, to overthrow the government," she explained.
The sensible solution is to seek a compromise, not capitulation to one or the other power. Peace cannot be achieved only on the basis of the "Zelensky" plan. or "Putin" plan. The conference in Switzerland without the participation of Russia will not lead to such a result. There is no way to reach peace by excluding one of the two warring parties, noted the historian.
"A cease-fire, a truce should be sought. From armistice to peace, there are plenty of opportunities for diplomacy to work."
As unpopular and politically incorrect as it is, politicians who think with data must come to the fore – how much war costs and how much peace will cost, Baeva emphasized.
"A bad peace is not a good option, but only a bad peace can open the possibility of evolutionary development – it can also turn into a good one. While war leads to worse and worse results."
More and more Western analysts are saying that Ukraine may lose the war. In the West they no longer say, with some exceptions, that Ukraine can win this war. There has been a sobering up on the Russian side as well, Prof. Iskra Baeva takes stock.
The thesis, which is developing ideologically in the West, that if Russia wins, it will take over all of Ukraine, and then attack other countries, is unrealistic, summarized Iskra Baeva. According to her, the Russian thesis of denazification has already been dropped.