Iran's missile and drone stocks will last for another two to three months amid the war with the US and Israel, but the US military is also running out of stocks, writes “South China Morning Post“ (SCMP), citing Chinese analysts.
According to Israeli military estimates, Iran possessed approximately 2,500 ballistic missiles at the start of the war.
According to Pentagon data as of March 4, Iran had already launched over 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones.
Iran's Shahed-136 drones are cheap to produce, costing between $20,000 and $50,000 each, compared to American interceptors such as the Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missiles, which cost several million dollars.
The Shahed is a family of Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles developed by Shahed Aviation Industries for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. They have gained recognition as cheap and mass-produced kamikaze drones used in modern military conflicts. The New York Times called Iran's drones "lethal weapons."
Hu Bo, director of the South China Sea Strategic Research Initiative, noted that Iran has begun to launch fewer ballistic missiles per day, with fewer than 1,000 remaining in its arsenal.
“At this rate, Iran could continue its operations for the next two to three months, barring internal turmoil.“ "The US goal of completely destroying Iran's missile capabilities is unrealistic, given that the remaining missiles are difficult to detect or are heavily guarded," Hu said, adding that as long as Iran retains the ability to retaliate, the conflict "cannot be resolved quickly."
Analysts believe the United States and Israel are also short of some key munitions, despite Trump's claim earlier this month that the US has "virtually unlimited" stockpiles. Last week, Semafor learned of Israel's critical shortage of interceptor missiles.
Analysts note, however, that the duration of the war will depend on more than just stockpiles. Iran's main advantage, they say, is its control of the Strait of Hormuz. “Iran has other tools to control the strait besides drones and missiles, such as naval mines that can be held for long periods,“ said retired PLA colonel Yue Gang.
The situation also depends on the effectiveness of the new US deployments and the political calculations of US President Donald Trump, the article said. “The decisive factor in determining the end of the war is not ammunition, but political will - whether Trump is willing to bring the conflict to a bitter end,” Yue said.