At this stage, Israel has only a tactical advantage. However, we are talking about the strategic depth of a country - other dimensions must be included in the military component: population size, number of troops - here Iran has an advantage. Israel has strategic allies, ready to help. Iran was left without allies - even Russia speaks passively about this conflict. Israel managed to destroy almost all of Iran's proxies.
This was explained in an interview with BNR by Yordan Bozhilov, chairman of the Sofia Security Forum, former deputy minister of defense.
"I don't see Russia assisting Iran. Iran is practically isolated. To a large extent Arab countries also assist in the defense of Israel."
Iran has been under sanctions for decades, it does not receive modern weapons. Most of Iran's main weapons systems are quite old. The air force has very old aircraft, while Israel has the most modern. In air defense, Iran relies on its own production or on slightly newer systems from Russia, but it does not have the capabilities that Israel has, which allow it to shoot down almost all launched drones and missiles, the expert reviewed the situation.
"Iran is a very large country, with a very large population - 90 million. The regime is very strong. This prevents a ground operation. Neither Israel nor the US would launch a ground operation. We saw what happened - Iraq, Afghanistan. This is an out of the question. The tolerance for casualties is different in Iran and Israel. Iran can afford a lot of casualties. That is why Iran's interest is a war of attrition. Iran will try to hit more and more civilian targets."
The key question is what are Israel's immediate and strategic political goals in this war with Iran, Bozhilov stressed. According to him, preventing Iran from creating a nuclear weapon is key and this will be achieved by destroying the facilities for enriching uranium beyond what is allowed for civilian purposes.
The IAEA has established that Iran has fourth-generation centrifuges and it has been proven that Tehran has at least 60% enriched uranium. This enrichment is already for an atomic bomb. Enrichment from 60 to 90% is much faster than from zero to 60%, Yordan Bozhilov pointed out and recalled that a computer virus 15 years ago set Iran's nuclear program back years.
The main question is whether the most secret and most protected facility, which is underground, will be destroyed and how. Israel does not have the capabilities to destroy it without the US. Only the US has a powerful bomb that can penetrate deep into the galleries located in one of the mountains of Iran, the expert commented on the program "Saturday 150".
Asked about the effect of Washington's direct participation in the conflict, Bozhilov pointed out that Iran would not respond directly, would use proxies, would try to attack nearby US bases, which in turn could escalate the war even further. Asymmetric responses such as cyberattacks and terrorism are other possible responses from Tehran.
Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz with military force. Tehran has the ability to distort or block GPS signals for shipping. Closing the strait would mean that the country would also not be able to export its raw materials through there. Closing the Strait of Hormuz would lead to an increase in gas and oil prices, noted Yordan Bozhilov.