Global LNG import costs are set to rise by at least $39 billion in 2026, despite a 60.7 million tonne drop in volumes purchased. The reason is the ongoing disruption of supplies from the Middle East due to the conflict in the region and restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a new analysis by Norwegian consultancy Rystad Energy, published on 26 October.
According to forecasts, total global LNG import costs will reach $256.3 billion, compared to an estimated $217.8 billion before the conflict. This represents an increase of nearly 18%, despite a significant contraction in physical volumes of supplies.
The calculations are based on a scenario in which LNG supplies from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates remain disrupted from March until the end of 2026. The disruption of exports through the Strait of Hormuz forces major importers to seek alternative suppliers and buy gas at higher prices on the open market.
Europe to pay the highest price
Europe is the region that will bear the largest increase in costs in absolute terms. According to Rystad Energy, Europe's LNG import bill will increase by at least $12 billion, or about 18%, to approximately $79 billion. This will happen despite an expected decrease in demand of 24 million tons.
Before the conflict began, European countries planned to receive 24.7 million tons of liquefied natural gas from Qatar in 2026. According to forecasts, 20.6 million tons of these supplies will not be realized.
The main problem for Europe is the high dependence on short-term purchases of natural gas. About 65% of European LNG imports are made on the spot market, where prices react directly to supply disruptions and changes in demand.
As a result, the average price of liquefied natural gas for Europe has increased by 47%.
Analysts warn that this supply structure makes European consumers particularly vulnerable to new price shocks.
Asia is coping better with the energy crisis
Unlike Europe, East Asian countries are relatively better protected from sharp fluctuations in gas markets. Their LNG spending is expected to increase by 9.7% to $104.6 billion, compared to the initial forecast of $95.3 billion.
The reason is the different supply model. Only 14.5% of LNG imports in East Asia are spot.
Furthermore, 82% of long-term supply contracts are tied to oil prices, which have risen significantly less than gas exchange prices.
According to Rystad Energy, oil-indexed contracts have risen by about 28%, while those tied to gas exchanges and the spot market have seen an increase of approximately 72%. This difference allows Asian buyers to limit the financial impact of the crisis, although the region has traditionally been among the largest consumers of Qatari LNG. The situation in South Asia is different. Countries are responding to high prices primarily by reducing imports, with Pakistan cutting purchases more sharply than India.
Strait of Hormuz Remains a Key Risk
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important sea routes for global energy trade. Before the conflict, nearly 20% of global LNG supplies passed through it, mainly from Qatar.
Disruptions to shipping and exports from the region have led to serious disruptions in international energy markets, forcing importers to redirect cargo and seek alternative routes.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz have led to severe volatility in gas prices in Europe and Asia in 2026. Despite the gradual restoration of some shipping after the interim agreement reached in June between the US and Iran, volumes remain significantly below pre-conflict levels.
The US, Australia and Canada can benefit from the crisis
The energy crisis is creating new opportunities for LNG producers outside the Middle East. According to Rystad Energy, US supplies to Europe have a strategic advantage because they do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz. However, for Asian markets, transporting US LNG could be hampered by the restrictions of the Panama Canal and the need to use longer sea routes. This increases the importance of Australia and Canada as alternative suppliers for the Pacific countries.
Expanding US natural gas liquefaction capacity could also help diversify supplies. However, analysts warn that rising exports could gradually put pressure on prices in the US domestic gas market.
Energy security becomes more important than price
According to Rystad Energy senior analyst Christoph Halser, the conflict has shown that countries have different options to deal with supply disruptions and rising energy prices.
He emphasizes that diversification of pricing mechanisms can help limit costs, but does not guarantee the physical availability of natural gas.
The Rystad Energy analysis shows that long-term contracts, a variety of suppliers and the security of transport routes are gaining increasing importance for countries' energy policies.
According to experts, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has shown that even falling consumption does not guarantee lower costs when supplies are limited and international competition for available quantities is intensifying.