“What lies ahead for Rumen Radev is an extremely difficult appointment of a cabinet, because all the figures in the “home book“ are connected either to GERB or to “DPS-New Beginning“, commented on “120 minutes“ sociologist Dimitar Ganev.
According to him, the better option for him is to resign after the end of the distribution of mandates and before the appointment of a caretaker cabinet.
„Then Iliyana Yotova will lead this process and he will not bear responsibility by signing the decree appointing the caretaker cabinet. From Radev's messages in the last few months, I think that he is unequivocally giving a direction that in some early parliamentary elections he will rather play“, believes Ganev.
„If he does not play now, a political catastrophe awaits him. His rating in recent months has been around 40-45%. At this point, if he does not step up, those who remained as his support will also be disappointed. His failure to come down leads him to a difficult political situation, which could undermine his path from now on“, said Dimitar Ganev.
And according to sociologist Andrey Raichev, if Rumen Radev refuses to come down to the political scene now, “he is finished“.
“This fiancé has been invited many times to the wedding and if he fails to show up again, he will cease to be a fiancé. I don't believe he will do it. All logic requires him to do it. Then the question arises when. There are two moments – New Year's speech or between the procedures“, the sociologist has an opinion.
According to Dimitar Ganev, what will answer the question of whether there will be a higher voter turnout than in previous votes is “will Radev jump“.
“If you go back in time, you will see that voter turnout increases sharply when there is a new player on the field who shows a political alternative“, the sociologist added.
The protests that led to the government's resignation
“Social tension has been building in Bulgaria in recent months. The budget was the spark that lit the fire. If it weren't for him, the social tension could have been different in another month“, commented Dimitar Ganev.
“Before the second protest, we were saying that it was more likely that we would go to presidential elections and not have early parliamentary elections. After the second protest, the horizon of this government shortened and it was already much more likely that we would go to early elections before the presidential one. From now on, the continuation of this government at all costs would only accumulate damage on all parties that make up the government. Borisov and the coalition partners preferred to minimize the damage“, the sociologist also said.
“Around January 17, in my opinion, Bulgaria will run out of money. They did the right thing by stepping down from power. Borisov won two things. First, the target was not so much Borisov and Peevski as Peevski. Very soon, it would be more, and finally Trifonov also started to be targeted. He avoided this and is still being conducted as a protest against Peevski. Secondly, his people share the protest. That is why he stepped down very rightly“, believes Andrey Raichev.
According to Dimitar Ganev, after the elections in Pazardzhik, Boyko Borisov seemed to be clearly aware of the damage he was suffering from such a coalition.
“The withdrawal of GERB from this government would have left the partners in a rather delicate position. In my opinion, he wanted to make much bigger changes, but the point is that the configuration is so complex that any change would have led to an even bigger problem, which could have led to early elections“, commented Ganev.
It was not his choice then to come to this, because the presidential elections were still on the horizon then. Namely – not to give an election date on which Radev can take to the field and confuse the electoral picture“, he added.
"Borisov's position since October was “I'm tired of governing from the back seat“. He demanded not just a change of government, but he wanted to become prime minister. However, Peevski did not allow it and this was a gross mistake on his part”, said Andrey Raichev.
"Therefore, there was no happier person than Borisov. At the last press conference, he was truly happy – he was joking because he was tired of this kind of dependence”, he added.