"Everything is preventable with action. After the elections - budget consolidation, sound public finances. We don't know what will happen with the war in Iran - whether it will end in a week - 2-3, or the conflict will deepen. This is the big unknown for everyone".
This was commented on by economist from the Institute for Market Economics Lachezar Bogdanov to the Bulgarian National Radio.
Regarding the fuel crisis, its effects and the measures taken in this direction, he emphasized that there will inevitably be losses:
"The only question is how much it can be slightly delayed, whether it can be distributed in a different way. But there is no policy that would prevent this price from being borne. We have to start from there - all expectations and discussions about how to avoid economic damage, how to avoid loss, are on the wrong foot. What the government is doing is taking careful, cautious measures".
According to him, the 20 euro measure is more of a social measure. "It doesn't have a particularly big budget cost - just over 20 million euros for the first month, which is not something that would matter to the budget at a macro level", Bogdanov explained in an interview for the program "Nedelya 150".
However, he expressed the opinion that it was possible to wait a little regarding the measures for business:
"We are not currently in a real deep economic crisis, but anyway, they seem temporary for now. This is the other big risk that still exists - it is political. In a crisis, things are done that are unacceptable in normal times".
It is too early to talk about a catastrophe that would cause any extraordinary huge measures, the economist believes. According to him, the risk is that if the military conflict deepens, it will lead to much higher oil prices:
"The real crisis will come at prices of 150-200 dollars per barrel of oil. For that, there must be some weapons in the arsenal, some measures for that. Now we are still at a more initial stage, we do not have a full-scale crisis. Yes, we have a price increase of about 20% in fuels, but still this is something that has happened in the past, it is not unprecedented, and rather economic players must adapt to slightly higher fuel prices".
According to financial journalist Stefan Antonov, the current situation has the potential to be the third major crisis that Bulgaria is facing this century. According to him, however, today Bulgaria is relatively poorly prepared for a crisis:
"Today, the fiscal reserves, which are a buffer to meet any tension and provide fiscal space for maneuver, are only 6% of the gross domestic product, and that's if we include those funds that have a strict purpose - nuclear funds or the Silver Fund. That is, Bulgaria enters this situation, which can really cause a crisis, in very bad shape. Second - the crisis has not yet shown its face. And if the crisis has not shown its face, then why is our government in such a hurry to take anti-crisis measures? We have no money, and we are already talking about a crisis and even promising some measures, that is, here the approach is extremely unprepared, I would say amateurish, that is, purely populist and panic-mongering".
He reminded that the state's resources are limited. "It is clear that we will all bear the crisis, but we need to think about how to preserve the industries that are most affected. That is, measures cannot be taken that are for the entire society. The measures must be directed at those sectors that are key and are most affected", the journalist believes.
"We need to think and work. We cannot always turn to the simplest solution, because very often it is not a solution - I am talking about the budget", Stefan Antonov also emphasized.