There are two issues that are relevant to the conflict in the Middle East - the first is regime change in Iran, the second is the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The first issue has almost fallen off the agenda, and the forcible military opening of the strait seems difficult to implement.
This was stated by former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Lyubomir Kyuchukov on the air of “Denyat na Live” on NOVA NEWS. According to the diplomat, how the war will continue depends on US President Donald Trump, while the issue of ending the conflict seems to increasingly depend on Iran.
„Iran has shown that it can cause damage to the US, Israel, as well as the Gulf countries, and can make the war very costly for the countries participating in it. Therefore, Iran is not inclined to agree to the conditions set by the US. To a large extent, they were conditions for Iran's surrender. On the other hand, Iran also has the self-confidence to demand more than before the start of hostilities”, noted Kyuchukov.
He stated that the Gulf countries and the Arabian Peninsula will be losers in the long run, as their status as a secure region, a stable financial and logistical center is called into question. “Whatever happens from now on, the consequences for the region will be severe”, he believes.
Kyuchukov also commented on the agreement signed by the official cabinet with Ukraine. “The third point of the agreement raises questions. It says that if after the end of the war in Ukraine there is aggression again from Russia, consultations at the highest level will be convened by the countries that signed this agreement, with measures being taken in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter. This article allows for individual and collective defensive actions, including military ones, without the consent of the UN Security Council”, he commented.