Economic analyst Georgi Angelov predicts that even in the most optimistic scenario, fuel prices will not normalize quickly. In the “Telegraph Podcast“ he said that it would take between 3 and 6 months after the eventual full opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the easing of the conflict with Iran for physical supplies of crude oil to be restored and the market to begin to stabilize.
According to him, the normalization process will be further delayed, as a number of countries have already depleted part of their strategic reserves and will seek to restore them. This will create new demand and may extend the period of high prices for several more months. Ultimately, full market stabilization could take between 9 months and a year.
Angelov pointed out that the behavior of individual countries also has a serious impact. Countries like China traditionally increase their reserves at low prices and wait at high ones, while others - especially in Asia - buy fuels regardless of price to ensure energy security. This further increases the pressure on the global market.
The crisis has also exposed structural weaknesses in energy systems. Countries without their own refineries, such as Australia, are heavily dependent on imports of finished fuels. Similar problems are also observed in Europe - for example, in Slovenia, where the lack of a refinery has led to temporary deficits.
One of the main reasons for the sharp price fluctuations is the difference between the financial and physical oil markets. Futures contracts reflect investors' expectations that the crisis will subside in the coming months, which keeps prices for future supplies lower. At the same time, the real market is reporting a shortage, which leads to significantly higher prices for immediate delivery - up to $120 per barrel, and in Asia even up to $180.
Geopolitical factors remain key. According to Angelov, it is possible that the US will limit oil exports in order to stabilize the domestic market. Such a measure would lead to lower prices in America, but even higher in Europe and other regions.
The situation is relatively more favorable for Bulgaria. The country has mandatory reserves for about 90 days, which have not been used, as well as access to alternative supplies from the Black Sea, including from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. This reduces the risk of a physical shortage of fuel, although price pressure remains. According to the expert, there is no danger that the country will run out of gasoline and diesel.
Angelov does not support the introduction of a price ceiling or a reduction in VAT on fuels. According to him, such measures can lead to deficits and do not always benefit end consumers. A more effective approach is targeted support to the most affected groups and businesses.
The analyst also noted that the current crisis is not having a serious impact on food prices globally so far, since the affected region is not a major producer of agricultural products. However, possible risks exist in the long term due to a potential shortage of fertilizers.
Regarding the domestic market, he emphasized that the increase in food prices in Bulgaria is not related to the introduction of the euro, but rather to speculative practices. Angelov also expressed hope that the country will have a stable government after the elections, which will ensure a longer-term economic policy.