Reaching a price of $120-130 per barrel of oil is a harbinger of a storm, a gloom, but it is not the real storm, which may not come. Because during the great oil shock in 1973, prices jumped by 300-400 percent. He said this in the program “Offensive“ on Nova News, the chairman of the Bulgarian Forum of Business Leaders Levon Hampartzumyan, commenting on the rise in oil prices worldwide against the backdrop of the war in the Persian Gulf and the blocked Strait of Hormuz.
According to him, we are still in a situation of uncertainty, processes are taking place that are difficult to predict.
"The main thing that can be said is that we do not know in what mood, for example, Donald Trump will wake up and whether he will decide to say something, to whom he will say it and how he will say it. That is why, to a large extent, the markets are starting to react more and more sluggishly to his statements," he emphasized.
But he was categorical that despite this, there is a serious shock that affects the entire global economy. Because today, unlike in 1973, we are much more connected and significantly more globalized.
"Of course, the trends for shortening production and supply chains and their regionalization are important - both with and without this crisis. If we transfer it to our reality, the question is what will be the place of Bulgaria as an industrial and manufacturing power in the new European production and supply chains. This is a key issue that is being resolved right now," he emphasized.
Hampartsumyan explained that all industrial countries have reserves, but they can last for a month, two or three - no more, because they require storage. The use of reserves, if there is a clear perspective on the duration of the crisis, would alleviate the situation until new supplies are organized.
"The problem is that some of the extraction and production installations have been stopped. These are complex technological systems that cannot be turned on and off with a single button. Restoring the normal pace of extraction and processing can take a long time. That is, even with a quick political solution and an end to the war, we can expect months of volatile and turbulent prices that will have an impact on economies. And this is happening in parallel with other important problems that also need to be solved," he said.