"I expect a general demobilization for the presidential elections, which will affect voter turnout. I don't notice that there is much of a penalty vote on the field, we have a clear favorite in the person of Iliyana Yotova, and GERB will not participate in these elections. So these will probably be the presidential elections with the lowest turnout". This comment was made by political scientist Dimitar Ganev in the morning block of bTV, quoted by novini.bg.
„Here there will be a clash of the hard cores and both candidates will have to focus on them. In addition, the elections will certainly be in two rounds“, he added.
According to him, the cases surrounding Petrokhan and the pardons are unlikely to drastically change the voter turnout.
„Iliyana Yotova enters the race with an advantage, mainly because of the weight of the formations that support her, one of which is the currently ruling party. Another interesting thing is - if the runoff is between Yotova and Gyurov, how would GERB react. We still do not have a clear message from Borisov, and I doubt that there will be one. The main question here is which of the two candidates will be able to send the more accurate messages to GERB voters“, commented Ganev.
For his part, sociologist Parvan Simeonov also agreed with Dimitar Ganev's words that we can hardly expect a high voter turnout in the presidential elections. He added that the GERB electorate would hardly vote “in such a situation”, which is why it is not without importance what Borisov's messages will be during the campaign.
“I don't see any huge incentive to vote. The trend has always been for lower voter turnout in the presidential elections. I expect approximately two million voters in these elections“, Parvan Simeonov predicts.
According to him, to date, Iliyana Yotova has the greatest chances of winning the vote, but he warned that it is the presidential elections that most often bring surprises.
Regarding GERB's absence from the race for “Dondukov“ 2, the sociologist pointed out that “when you have been the main political force in the country and cannot find a candidate, this is a dangerous phase“.
“The real test for GERB will be the local elections. But since they miss the presidential elections, I'm not sure how well they work for the locals“, added Simeonov.
According to him, there is a risk that GERB's non-participation in the presidential vote will demobilize the party's local structures and put it in a disadvantageous position before the local elections, which “in principle they are strong“.
“However, the local elections will not be so predetermined. The main GERB mayors are not exactly as loyal as they were before“, also said Parvan Simeonov.
Regarding the presidential elections, he stated that they have outlined the new political reality, in which on one side is “Progressive Bulgaria“, on the other is PP-DB, and GERB is gone.
If Iliana Yotova wins the presidential elections, Simeonov believes, “Progressive Bulgaria“ will be relegitimized and will receive a kind of credit of trust for the upcoming autumn-winter season, when the draft budget for 2027 is expected to be voted on. In this regard, he suggested that Budget 2027 will enter the presidential election campaign in one way or another, but he is convinced that the government will do everything possible to prevent the budget plan from interfering in the race for “Dondukov“ 2.
Finally, both Parvan Simeonov and Dimitar Ganev united around the opinion that there must be a debate between Iliyana Yotova and Andrey Gyurov between the two rounds.