The way the election campaign is going in the first ten days since its official beginning, testifies rather to organizational-political, personnel and ideological exhaustion of the main parties – campaign activities on the ground are few, there is a lack of energy and fresh ideas, there are no substantive pre-election debates, social networks are mainly relied upon. In general, the rhythm of the campaign is immersed in ongoing political scandals. At the same time, some radical-populist political subcultures are beginning to emerge on the political surface, whose outlines are rather invisible in the official public discourse, but generate certain support mainly through more unconventional channels of political communication.< br /> This is said in an analysis of the “Gallup International Balkan“ about the state of the election campaign and the political forces in the first ten days of the official start – in what general political context did the campaign start, what are the main characteristics of the election campaigns of the leading political forces, their advantages, limitations and weaknesses.
GERB-SDS- campaign with the image of a "winning party"
The GERB-SDS campaign exudes moderation and managerial self-confidence. The party appears monolithic, and its leader, Boyko Borisov, has taken an active role in the campaign. Even at this stage of the campaign, efforts are being made to build the image of GERB-SDS as a “winning party”, which should have a leading role in forming a regular government. For GERB, electing a government after the elections is of great importance, because otherwise there is a danger of disillusionment and erosion in their electorate. At the same time, the still unclear prospects of forming a parliamentary majority to produce a government apparently already motivate them to some hesitant requests for wider parliamentary interaction compared to tripartite cooperation during the so-called “assembly“. The party lists include the formation's experienced management team. The new emphasis with the inclusion of the successful mayors of large centers, such as Burgas, Plovdiv, Stara Zagora, probably aims to further open the party to peripheral electoral groups, but at the same time it is also a symptom of limited personnel resources and may lead to a building effect in the campaign.
PP-DB - impression of a lack of a single campaign with a single strategy, single messages and vision
„Revival“- two limitations and one strategic problem
PP-DB are the main contender for the second place in this election. Compared to their competitor for the second position, “Vazrazhdane”, PP-DB has the significant advantage of having a more significant electoral reserve, which in mobilization, it can easily guarantee the coalition's second place. However, there is an impression of a lack of a single campaign with a single strategy, single messages and vision. On the one hand, “We continue the change”, whose candidates dominate the candidate lists, maintains its more radical line, mixed with the familiar “messianic“ speaking in the categories “good forces – dark forces“. On the other hand, “Democratic Bulgaria” and its leaders have a much more selective and moderate behavior and messages, which leaves more room for post-election maneuvers and negotiation opportunities. The coalition definitely has the potential to regain some of the votes lost in the previous elections. The whole question is whether the outlined imbalances and defocusing of the campaign, as well as factors such as disillusionment with their inclusion in previous coalition formats, will not prevent this.
„Revival“ is positioned as PP-DB's main competitor for second place, but faces two limitations and one strategic problem. The first limitation is that “Revival“ conducts its campaign in familiar tracks – sharp attacks against Bulgaria's pro-European and pro-Western policy. This puts a kind of electoral ceiling on them. The second limitation is the presence of smaller formations in the same political niche that actively try to attract disaffected sympathizers. The big strategic problem for “Revival“ however, it is the geopolitical “sanitary cordon” that blocks their way to possible direct participation in power, even with hypothetical electoral success.
DPS-New beginning and APS- the fierce competition for traditional DPS voters
The biggest question mark in this election is the fierce competition for traditional DPS voters. In the conditions of internal division, the party entity DPS, headed by Delyan Peevski, participates in a pre-election coalition DPS-New Beginning. The composition of their lists testifies that a significant part of the party active, authorities from the local communities, many of the mayors of municipalities, which are traditionally considered to be “fortresses” of DPS, have remained loyal to the party entity. This is a prerequisite for successful political mobilization. Problems and limitations for their campaign may arise from a possible strengthening of the competitive coalition APS, as well as from sharp conflicts with President Rumen Radev and with former partners from the collapsed constitutional majority in the form of the PP-DB.
On the other hand, in these elections, leading factors and assets of DPS, including honorary chairman Ahmed Dogan, participate in the lists of the coalition Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS), composed of other parties - People's Agricultural Union and SBOR. At this stage of the campaign, for obvious reasons, their actions and messages are dominated by the internal conflict in the DPS, and hence – and with the DPS-New Beginning coalition. This to some extent encapsulates their electoral options and messages. Ahmed Dogan's actual absence from pre-election events so far, including the opening of the campaign in Kardzhali, can be seen as a problem for the campaign. At the same time, their lists seem quite diverse in terms of political profile - it is striking, for example, the presence of political figures from other parties known from the recent past – Nikolay Tsonev, Nikolay Barekov, Yavor Haitov.
BSP-United Left, ITN and other formations
BSP-United Left appears in these elections as a mechanically assembled coalition format, which, however, does not have much potential to build on the electoral result. The candidate lists are quite unrecognizable, there is no clear political leadership, and the collapse of the BSP's local structures in recent years, combined with insufficient representation in local government, puts the coalition in danger of approaching the risk zone around the 4 percent barrier.
ITN seem to be sure of their place in the new parliament, but it should be noted that a stronger consolidation of protest and punishment vote around formations like MECH and “Velichie”, would be the most already at their expense.
Formations in the right space, such as “Blue Bulgaria”, at this stage fail to build on their performance from the previous elections. It should be taken into account that their results are also dependent on the mobilization of the electorates of the larger right-wing formations, such as GERB-SDS and PP-DB.