The election campaign is currently dull and boring. Most parties and their leaders will heave a sigh of relief when it is over. Because the parties have nothing new in the way of ideas and program intentions, and perhaps they do not want to offer their voters. I remind you that this is the 7th parliamentary election within 3.5 years, with the 8th election looming next year, which is my prediction.
This is what he said about “Focus" the political scientist Prof. Ivo Injov.
In his words, the current elections are a partial explanation for the fatigue of the parties. "But the main point is that they have nothing new to offer the voter. There are no sharp ideological clashes in the campaign. Until now, polarization has come from interpersonal and inter-party battles. It seems that everything has already been said with such frequent elections and the impossibility of forming a regular government for a longer time.
Now we are just watching a film that we have seen, but at the end of the screening an attempt must be made to form a government, which will be very difficult, and the government will be short-lived. It gives the impression that everything is the same, although it is not. We have a split in one of the sign formations in the transition, we have opposition between Euro-Atlanticists and Russophiles. The problem is that there are no serious intentions and political will to fight corruption and to reform the judicial system. There was a change in the Constitution, there was a reform package that was struck out by the Constitutional Court. At the same time, we have regulatory bodies with an unchanged composition, a Supreme Court with an unchanged composition of the parliamentary quota, etc. Examples that show that the parties that could impose a strong storyline in Bulgarian politics do not have a clear idea of how exactly to do this - how to reform the judicial system and how to fight corruption. If they had staked it during the assembly and worked it as a mechanism, instead of betting entirely on the idea of constitutional changes, now there would be a political force or forces that stand out and people would vote for them," explained Prof. Ivo Indjov.
"Median" and "Gallup" came out with the latest data regarding the parties and the race between them, GERB-SDS leads according to both agencies. The second place is interesting, which according to “Mediana" is on “Revival" with 13.5%, and according to “Gallup" PP-DB stand out more distinctly. The second place is disputed, but everything depends on the turnout and which formation will be able to mobilize the most voters within the low turnout.
"If a formation mobilizes a solid number of its core, it can improve their result very sharply and cause surprises, taking parties that are currently around 3% to pass 4%. “PP-DB are in a defensive position, they did not have an authentic conversation with their voters to explain why they made the assembly. Most of their voters withdrew from them, due to the fact of assembly. It will be a big success for them if they keep their previous result. “Revival" have a lot to catch up on, they lost to the phenomenon “Greatness" the previous time. Now “Revival" have a clearer positioning against the parties from the assembly, especially with the Law on the so-called LGBT propaganda. They banned something that doesn't actually exist, they tried the Foreign Agents Act, it got them a lot of bonuses. “Revival" have a real chance of coming second in this election. The difference between “Revival" and PP-DB is not large in absolute terms", Indjov explained and noted that "Revival" is the only formation that has been on the rise since 2021.
"They keep some stable values, unlike the other parties that lost. Against the background of the split in the DPS “Revival" there is a real possibility that they will be second.
The configuration for a new assembly will be a bit complicated, but those that will be pointed at are “Revival" and DPS-Peevski", stressed Prof. Ivo Injov.
“Both DPS enter the parliament, and there will be a points victory for DPS-Dogan, they will defeat Peevski's DPS-New Beginning for the simple reason that the ethnic Turks in Bulgaria, even if they do not like DPS and Dogan, vote along ethnic lines. DPS is the party that represents them in political life, Dogan is a mythological figure, although it was debunked in the last 2-3 months. The role of small parties is that there can be a parliament of 7 or 9 participants, it is also possible for “Majesty" and “Sword" to enter this parliament. Everything depends not only on their voter turnout, but above all on the degree of mobilization of party assets and party clientele," concluded Associate Professor Ivo Injov.