What does sociology show us that DPS – New Beginning are the second political force and what can this lead to. As well as what will be the future of KONPI … Political scientist Tatyana Burudzhieva speaks to FACTI.
- Ms. Burudzhieva, DPS – New Beginning is the second political force in the latest survey by “Gallup International Balkan “. Is this a trend or a dependency…
- There is nothing surprising in this percentage, because this is the percentage of DPS compared to people who have stated that they intend to vote. If we look at the data for the entire population that can vote, we are talking about all voters, we know that they are already voting below 40%. The MRF has been sitting for a long time as much as it has always been - 8-10%. This is the volume of their voters. The percentage that the MRF receives in different periods is highly dependent on the total percentage compared to all voters. It can be obtained in different months, in different surveys, a different percentage, because this is the attitude of those who will vote. In general, there are two big questions before the MRF - New Beginning. Will the party that Ahmed Dogan will create lead to a new split, or will it not be able to. Currently, what we are observing through these percentages for the MRF - New Beginning, is the gathering, stabilization of the entire electoral body of the MRF. So this percentage does not tell us anything new. MRF voters are not disappearing.
- Yes, they will find their new place, but what will it be…
- They are very disciplined and loyal to the party, they are active. About 400,000 voters vote for MRF to a large extent. In this sense, whether MRF-New Beginning managed to win back all the voters, rather yes. There is no longer a split in MRF - not just in the party, in the elite, but also among the voters, and the question is whether Dogan will provoke a new split. So we have to see what will happen if a new party is created. Will Dogan and the people around him manage to win back any voters at all? Another big question is what is happening with the other parties.
- I asked you about DPS-New Beginning as a second political force, because second place means being given a mandate in one election, whenever they are...
- If we extrapolate this result to the members of parliament, DPS is simply regaining its positions. Up until now, there was a doubt, a suspicion that they had obtained a good result not through fair elections, but in another way. And that was somehow an easy explanation for everything. But let's instead ask ourselves what the mechanisms are, what the influence is, what the motivation is for people to vote. What do DPS-New Beginning do? The party and its representatives give people what is expected of them - security, predictability, a guarantee of protection. While with other parties, the problem is to what extent they are adequate to the expectations of their own voters. It's not that we have any movement with other parties, but it really is clear that it is most significant with DPS-New Beginning. So the data does not tell us anything new, but simply shows us the fact that the MRF voter is no longer divided.
- „We continue the change“ are fourth. Is this due to the scandals in Sofia and Varna?
- It may be so, but I cannot say for sure. It is simply a process of about a percentage difference compared to previous surveys. The results for second place are very close. I would say that there is a lull in PP-DB. Percentage up, percentage down is not essential when we are talking about a sociological survey. We have had such situations in other years, when the picture seems to be frozen, and when the horizon for elections opens, things are already changing. With „Vazrazhdane“ there is already an internal competition, especially with MECH. „Vazrazhdane“ have returned more to the streets and to protest actions, and are not so visible through their work in parliament. As for PP-DB, I think we will see in the coming months whether the scandals in Sofia and Varna will affect them. The fact that the picture is now frozen indicates that the voter is in a wait-and-see position. People are sitting and watching, but they are not yet ready to announce their final decision. This does not mean that they are not drawing conclusions from what is happening. The moment we have a real electoral situation and it is actually seen that there will be elections, it will immediately become clear where things are going. PP-DB are generally closed to their hard-core voters.
- And let's talk about the topic of the summer - the Anti-Corruption Commission. Delyan Peevski submitted a proposal to the parliament to close it. What kind of move is this…
- I don't think people are really concerned that this is exactly their topic, because, in my opinion, people in general didn't even understand why this commission was created, why they wanted to split it into two and now why it will be closed. Peevski made an absolute mess, because every party is now trying to get out of this situation. That is, Peevski tried to direct the situation with KONPI, if I may put it that way, and to be an active factor, not a passive one. Yes, he could have remained a passive factor, but then he would have been in the role of a punching bag and accusations would constantly be thrown at him that he, in fact, created it, that he was directing this "bat". And with this statement, he showed two things - that the commission is not important to him, but he also made the parties formulate positions "for" or "against". It was clear that by submitting such a proposal, it would put the PP-DB in a very delicate position, especially the DB, who continue to insist that the KONPI be closed in its current form and a new commission be created.
- But GERB is also in an awkward situation, because as the governing party, I cannot say “okay“ and close it, because we will lose European money …
- For GERB, neither one nor the other is good, because for them it is important that this commission continues to operate, so that they can receive the money under the Recovery and Sustainability Plan. For them, it is important that every lev, every euro that comes to Bulgaria is not wasted. This is the situation at the moment. GERB, as the governing party, must take maximum care to collect money in the treasury, and not to distribute it. On the other hand, it is not important at all for them whether this commission will exist or not. For GERB, it is important to have strategic majorities in parliament so that specific legislative decisions supporting the government's policies can be voted on. The PP defended the thesis of having a sanitary cordon around Delyan Peevski, and now they have made a very quick move. I would say that they reacted the fastest and distanced themselves well from the DB and said that they do not want KONPI to be closed. Another question is what explanation they will give to their voters, after the people at their protests want KONPI to be closed. They have apparently decided that this is the lesser harm than standing side by side with Peevski again. Now it will be interesting to see what the National Assembly will do after the Legal Committee did not accept the item on closing KONPI for consideration. Once again, we see an early fight between the DB and the PP, as was the case on the topic of submitting a vote of no confidence. PP hastily said that they would submit a vote, and DB more reasonably explained that now is not the time and that it would be an unnecessary move. Now for KONPI, the positions have been swapped, and PP is in the more reasonable position and continues its strategic goal of being against Peevski. DB, on the other hand, proposes that KONPI reorganize, because it was a “bat“ for Peevski. And what guarantees that after it is reorganized, it will not become a “bat“ again.