The new cabinet, associated with President Rumen Radev, has already sparked serious political commentary due to its composition, portfolios and the expected role of individual ministers. To what extent will this management be expert, is there a risk of excessive concentration of power and what are the major challenges facing the cabinet - from the budget and inflation to foreign policy. Political scientist Ralitsa Simeonova spoke to FACT on these topics.
- Ms. Simeonova, how do you assess the structure of the cabinet “Radev“ – Do you see an expert model of governance, or a highly political cabinet?
- The structure of the cabinet is an important indicator of the goals and priorities that a government sets for itself. In the approved structure of the cabinet “Radev“ we see four deputy prime minister positions, with two of the deputy prime ministers being “without portfolio“ and will not head ministries. The other two will head ministries and will be responsible for finance, the economy, investments and industry. This is logical, because the main challenges facing the country at the moment have financial and economic dimensions.
In my opinion, it was reasonable to also have a deputy prime minister for social policy, as social problems are another particularly important and pressing topic that must be addressed adequately. We understood that Ivo Hristov would deal with such issues, but as it was defined, his portfolio includes too broad a range of issues and has no focus. And it is necessary to seek effective and concrete solutions that will meet the expectations of the people, including this cabinet, for a stronger emphasis on the person - on caring for the Bulgarian citizen here and now.
What is impressive is the presence of the Ministry of Innovation and Digital Transformation. It will be interesting to follow the activities of this department and what the priorities it will implement will be, because the topic is obviously important to Rumen Radev.
In terms of personnel, I think that neither expertise nor political experience and profile are leading.
The focus is on loyalty, reliability and predictability. We mainly observe familiar faces, some of whom are from Radev's closest circle. These are people who have been inseparable from him over the years and whom he trusts. Some are surprised that the cabinet also includes names directly related to Slavi Trifonov's "There is such a people". However, I am not among those surprised. These connections are not from yesterday and can be traced back in time, including to 2021, when people from this circle gravitated around the official cabinets and were even part of their political teams.
- Some of the ministers in the new government were already official ministers or close to the presidential institution. Is this a guarantee of stability, or does it hide the risk of a closed management circle?
- This is not a guarantee of stability, but rather an expectation of loyalty, obedience and greater control over the actions of individual ministers, so that no sudden moves are made outside the set framework. Decisions in the cabinet will in any case be made in a narrower circle around Radev. This is Rumen Radev's style and I do not believe he will change his approach in this regard.
- Do you see strong figures in the key portfolios – finance, energy, internal affairs and foreign policy – or rather compromise appointments?
- The strong figure in the cabinet is Radev himself. I would say with a high degree of probability that no one will be allowed to stand out or act autonomously and without the sanction of Radev and the circle around him. I expect the decision-making process to be highly centralized, and the delegation of functions – rather formalized.
- To what extent is the „Radev“ cabinet will it be able to act independently and to what extent will it remain dependent on the influence of the president and the parliamentary majority?
- Of course, the cabinet will depend on the parliamentary majority, but considering that it is a one-party state and that the PB has an absolute majority in the legislature, I expect parliamentary support to be stable and the government to impose its political agenda relatively smoothly.
I believe that the PB parliamentary group will be distinguished by discipline and I do not expect serious splits in the near future.
As for relations with the president, there are currently no indications of tension. Rather, they will act in synchrony. We will have to follow what the dynamics will be after the upcoming presidential elections, if, of course, this cabinet is still in power then.
- What are the biggest risks facing this government in the first 100 days – the budget, inflation, EU funds or internal political tensions?
- The biggest risks are related to the financial and economic challenges and the social problems arising from them, including in a geopolitical context and in view of the possibility of an energy and food crisis. The budget and inflation will undoubtedly be among the main topics. The commitments made to eradicate the oligarchic model are also on the agenda. Bulgarian citizens expect justice and institutionality. They expect solutions to the most pressing socio-economic problems.
This requires effective strategic goal-setting, solid expert potential, political will and courage to impose decisions that directly affect the interests of strong oligarchic lobbies. Expectations for this cabinet are high, and the challenges ahead of it – serious.
- Do you expect the new cabinet to seek a different foreign policy course in relation to Brussels, the war in Ukraine and relations with the US?
- No. There are neither requests, nor indications, nor practice of Radev's official cabinets that indicate such a change. In his statements, he has repeatedly expressed support for the sovereignty of Ukraine and has called Russia an aggressor in this context. Let us not forget that during the official cabinets of Galab Donev, military aid was provided to Ukraine.
Now it has also been explicitly stated that deeper European integration and a constructive role in the alliances in which Bulgaria participates, including NATO, will be sought.
The choice of a foreign minister also does not indicate a different approach. Her profile suggests a more administrative and bureaucratic style of conducting foreign policy, rather than a full-fledged political one or an alternative to the previous one. In this sense, I expect foreign policy to move along the existing inertia. This will probably be one of the reasons for disappointment among some of the voters of “Progressive Bulgaria“.
- There are already comments that the cabinet is composed of “familiar faces“ and people from the official departments. Does this bring a sense of continuity or a lack of political renewal?
- It rather brings a sense of predictability and a refusal to take risks with new and less well-known personnel. There are no figures among the ministers who have distinguished themselves with anything particularly significant, so their choice is hardly dictated by their personal qualities, competence or achievements to date. Rather, it seems motivated by the expectation that they will be easily controlled and guided in their activities.