Comment by Emilia Milcheva:
Rumen Radev knows whose Crimea is, but he still does not know whose drones hit two civilian ships in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone.
After the meeting of the National Security Advisory Council (NSAC), convened 36 hours after the attacks, the Bulgarian government continues to claim that it cannot determine whether the drones are Russian or Ukrainian. Prime Minister Radev has already said that the cargo and the direction of movement of the ships give grounds for a hypothesis pointing to Russia "logically speaking", but there is no concrete evidence.
The logic comes from the cargo. One of the ships - ABAL, is transporting grain to Istanbul. The sunken ALFA WATAN was loading salt for Ukraine in an Egyptian port, from where it was supposed to transport grain back to Egypt. It sank in three minutes along with its 9-member crew, the youngest of whom is 19 years old. The other ship caught fire, and two sailors were seriously injured.
There is no threat, there is a threat
The state does not know who sent the drones, where they came from and why they were directed to hit these two ships, one loaded with grain and the sunken one with salt for Ukraine. But it is confident that the unknown perpetrator does not threaten Bulgaria.
Nevertheless, the CSNS has identified increased threats to critical infrastructure and serious challenges to its protection. Therefore, additional measures will be taken, such as increased surveillance in the Black Sea, countering unmanned systems and developing the necessary defense capabilities. There is no immediate threat, but defense against it must be strengthened.
Just a few hours before the CSNS, the Council of Ministers adopted the Annual Report on the State of National Security in 2025 - a document that should contain an assessment of the risks, dangers and threats facing the country. What exactly is written in it about the war in Ukraine, Russia and security in the Black Sea cannot be understood for now. The report, approved on October 7, has not yet been published. In the previous report for 2024, Russia was named without hesitation - both because of the risks arising from its actions and in relation to hybrid threats, disinformation and the Black Sea region.
Now the articulation of the name of the attacker on the ships is stuck somewhere between Radev's logic and the intuition of his military minister, who said on bTV that he has an "inner conviction of whose drones are", but without evidence he cannot share it.
This evidence will probably be sought for a long time. After a request from the Bulgarian government, the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) has offered "absolutely free of charge" to examine the wreckage of the sunken ship for remains of the drones. Only then will the authorities be able to say whose drone it is.
Bulgaria and Romania have also requested satellite data from the EU. At the same time, there was no direct communication with the Ukrainian Air Force and security services that could provide information about the drones used, claims Rumen Radev.
The aggressor disappears as a reason
The aggressor disappears not only as a name, but also as a reason. The CSNS accepts that "the greatest guarantee for our security is an immediate ceasefire" and the use of political and diplomatic channels for peace, and Bulgaria must actively participate in this process.
It turns out that the risks are not a consequence of Russian aggression and the expansion of military actions in the Black Sea, but a "direct consequence" of the lack of a diplomatic settlement of the conflict, as President Yotova defined it.
"Democratic Bulgaria" (DB) has proposed that Bulgaria explicitly reaffirm the declaration signed at the UN by 51 countries (including Bulgaria), calling for an immediate ceasefire and the start of real peace talks, but the proposal was not accepted.
The other proposal of the DB - that Bulgaria send a diplomatic note to Moscow for a gross violation of international maritime law and to request guarantees that such attacks will not be repeated - was also not accepted.
In return, the CSNS distributed the concerns for Bulgarian security between allies and international organizations. Support for "Eastern Watch" is expected from NATO, a mechanism for safe shipping from the EU, and a legal and technical assessment of the attacks from the UN. Common measures for the safety of merchant ships will be sought with Romania and Turkey, and Bulgaria will offer the Black Sea countries a moratorium on military actions. Only from Russia it will not ask for anything. And Moscow uses this silence to spread its propaganda versions of what happened.
When Sofia is silent, Moscow speaks
The Russian embassy stated that the two ships were not among the targets of the Russian armed forces and also called for waiting for the results of the investigation to establish the "nationality" of the drones. In parallel, Russian propaganda channels began to spread versions of "Ukrainian provocation", "shadowy Ukrainian fleet" and an attempt to draw Bulgaria and Romania into the war.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not wait for Bulgaria to finish searching for evidence, but talked with Vladimir Putin about the security of shipping in the Black Sea - so that civilian ships would not be attacked.
Who stood by Radev
The meeting of the National Security Council turned from a national security council into a snapshot of domestic political rearrangement. The DB, "We continue the change", MRF and "Vazrazhdane" declared themselves against the joint declaration, and the co-chairman of "Yes, Bulgaria" (part of the DB) Ivaylo Mirchev said after the meeting: "I don't remember people at the table who had any doubts that Russia was behind this attack".
Next to the ruling "Progressive Bulgaria" was GERB - in the person of leader Borisov, although before the KSNS it was GERB that voiced some of the firm positions on probable Russian responsibility. After five hours behind closed doors, Borisov supported a text in which it is only clear that there is some threat to maritime security and critical infrastructure, because there is no peace.
Thus the KSNS produced an unexpected political result. On the issue on which Radev and the government remained isolated from almost all parliamentary forces, GERB provided them with the only significant support. And this coincidence comes at a time when "Progressive Bulgaria" will need votes outside its own majority in parliament for the upcoming election of members of the Supreme Judicial Council.
The Supreme Judicial Council had to give an answer on how Bulgaria will react to the new risks in the Black Sea. Two attacked ships turned out to be insufficient for a clear Bulgarian position.
What needs to happen in the Black Sea for Rumen Radev to end the hypotheses?