India is reporting a massive surge in electricity consumption in October—nearly 22% year on year. Peak instantaneous demand for the month jumped from 210 to 260.73 GW. That is now roughly equivalent to the average levels in the energy sector of the entire European Union. We talk a lot here about the urgent need for electrification, yet we cannot even begin to imagine what it means for a system to grow at such a pace.
The data clearly show how such dizzying growth is being powered. According to Grid India, coal-fired electricity generation increased by 25.7% in October compared with the same month last year, while its share of total generation rose to 71.7%, up from 66% in September. At the same time, hydropower generation fell by 26% due to lower rainfall.
At one point in October, 100 of India’s 191 coal-fired power plants were operating with critically low fuel stocks—with less than three days’ worth of coal in storage—because of the sharp increase in demand. The situation improved after the Indian government increased coal supplies at a record pace. In September, India’s electricity shortfall reached 560 million kWh—the highest level since August 2023. Meanwhile, renewable electricity generation is also growing, but despite this, its share fell to around 15% in October, down from 17% in September.
All of this is prompting Indian authorities to reconsider their plans for developing the system. Last year’s plans called for adding "only" 97 GW of new coal-fired capacity, bringing the total to 307 GW by 2035. Now, an increase of between 105 and 150 GW is being discussed. It does not even occur to anyone to replace coal with the mass construction of gas-fired power plants, because no sensible person in power would rely on an imported resource exposed to such a volatile global market as the foundation of the electricity system.
This is the situation. We can simply dismiss these facts with the classic "Are we really going to learn from those wretches!?" or think a little about what we are actually saying and doing, and what is happening in places where there really is rapid progress and almost everything we consume is produced.