Russia's so-called "summer offensive" has largely failed in Donbas, writes military expert Nico Lange of the Munich Security Conference, Focus.de reported, citing Tagesspiegel.
While the situation around Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk in Donetsk region remains critical, Russia will not yet be able to take the cities in the foreseeable future.
Lange sees only a slow Russian advance "in several front sectors in the Dnipropetrovsk region and Zaporizhia region". On the second front - to the north, in the Sumy border region - "Russia achieved nothing during the offensive," Lange wrote. The front was opened after Russian troops drove Ukrainians out of Russia's Kursk region. But now, according to Lange, "Ukraine is pushing Russian troops back across the state border."
How is the Ukrainian army managing to defend the front? "Mainly with drones," Lange says. Because of this, Russian soldiers rarely launch large-scale attacks, instead advancing in small groups.
Lange therefore does not expect any Russian breakthroughs or strategic changes on the main front. He sees a balance between the two armies that "can be maintained for a very long time." The widely held view that Russia is advancing inexorably is false.
In April, a senior NATO official estimated Russia's total losses since 2022 at approximately 900,000, including up to 250,000 dead. There are no current official figures.
In addition to the ground battle, however, the two warring parties are also waging an air battle. Ukraine is attacking the aggressor's oil infrastructure, while Russia has repeatedly attacked residential buildings, including in Kiev, to create the media impression that Ukraine is losing the war. Russia is bombing and killing Ukrainian civilians in the name of its information war, says Lange.
Austrian Colonel Markus Reisner commented to n-tv.de on the possibility of the US supplying “Tomahawk“ missiles to Kiev. “The presence of “Tomahawk“ would give Ukraine a greater opportunity to attack critical Russian military facilities, it would also disrupt Russian preparations,“ the expert says.
It is even possible that the US has already given “authorization for certain attacks on Russian territory“, similar to what the Biden administration did at the end of its mandate. It is even believed that the power outage in Belgorod “was caused by a strike by an ATACMS or HIMARS missile“, i.e. a missile manufactured in the US. However, there is no evidence yet.
Regardless, Reisner admits that Ukraine's air campaign has been very successful. According to various experts, up to 25 percent of Russia's oil production capacity has been destroyed.
Ukraine is successfully targeting Putin's Achilles heel: revenues from oil sales abroad.