On October 10, Estonian authorities temporarily closed a section of the road passing through Russian territory near the Russian-Estonian border. The measure was taken after Estonian border guards spotted a small group of Russian military personnel without insignia in the area, News.bg reports.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) continues to assess that Russia has recently stepped up its covert and overt attacks on Europe and that the country has entered “Phase Zero.” This is a stage in which Moscow creates informational and psychological conditions in support of its campaign to prepare for a possible military conflict between NATO and Russia in the future.
The event represents the first time that ISW has observed the appearance of so-called “Little Green Men” - a euphemism used for Russian military forces without insignia in the immediate vicinity of a NATO country in the context of the “Phase Zero” campaign.
Meelis Saarepuu, head of the Southern Prefecture of the Estonian Police and Border Guard, announced on October 11 that Estonian authorities had closed a section of the road between Varska and Saatse, almost one kilometer long, part of which passes through Russian territory. The decision was made for security reasons after seven armed Russian servicemen were spotted near the Russian section of the road on October 10.
According to Saarepuu, the uniforms of the servicemen in question indicated that they were not border guards. However, Russian border guards assured their Estonian counterparts that the activity in the area was routine. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsakhna said on October 12 that Russian forces were acting “a little more aggressively and visibly than before,” but stressed that claims of rising tensions along the border were exaggerated.
According to available information, intelligence sharing between the United States and Ukraine has been crucial in increasing the effectiveness of Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign targeting Russia’s energy sector in recent months. In response, the Kremlin has sought to stabilize the domestic gasoline market to offset the effects of Ukraine’s strikes on refineries.
On October 12, U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed the possibility of selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine during a phone call. Meanwhile, the Kremlin continues its campaign to deter such a deal.
Russia’s efforts to increase the number of recruits through high financial incentives are also reportedly are losing momentum, suggesting that this primary method of recruiting volunteers for the war is yielding fewer and fewer results.
Ukrainian forces advanced in the western part of Zaporizhia Oblast, as well as in the areas near Kupyansk and Siversk. Russian troops made progress in the eastern part of Zaporizhia Oblast and around Pokrovsk.