The Middle East war is at a "dead end", as there is currently no political solution for either side, but a decisive breakthrough could come within three to five weeks, Lebanese political journalist Nadim Kuteish said in an interview with the “National” newspaper, BTA reported.
The conflict will end when Iran finds a formula to stop the conflict without looking like a defeat, or when the US finds a formula to stop the war without looking like a failure. "For now, there is a military strategy on the American side, but there is no political solution. On the Iranian side, there is a very clear instinct for survival and resilience, but they do not have such strong levers to put on the table,” he adds.
Kuteish points out that Iran has suffered heavy military losses. According to him, the Islamic Republic entered this war on February 28 from the position of one of the largest military powers in the region with a huge missile potential, but in two weeks it has lost between 90 and 95 percent of its capabilities in this regard.
Analysts see in the election of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader a message to Washington and Israel that external pressure, including the elimination of Iran's leaders, hardens, rather than changes, its leadership. "The regime is trying to show significance, stability and continuity," commented Kuteish. "Will this be the case in three weeks? We don't know. I don't think it will be."
The journalist does not see the possibility of overthrowing the regime through air strikes, but emphasizes that the regime has changed. According to him, US President Donald Trump has accelerated an institutional coup that has been in the making for years, and now the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is making the decisions. "The regime has changed and is completely different from what it was at the beginning of the war. It has transformed from a theocratic system with a military branch to a military dictatorship with a turban - that is Mojtaba Khamenei", he says.
Kuteish believes that three issues will determine whether the war has brought victory to Israel and the US. The first is reducing Iran's ballistic missiles and drones to the lowest possible number. The second is opening the Strait of Hormuz to demonstrate the collapse of Iranian power.
The third issue is depriving the regime of the opportunity to rebuild itself by eliminating its leaders. According to Kuteish, Mojtaba Khamenei and the leading figures around him are left alive because Trump expects to see if they can offer a way out of the war and if they show that they will not do so, they will be eliminated or at least put on the list for elimination.
Achieving the above three goals will turn Iran into a large, isolated, weak country, which is good for the region, the analyst points out.
He is of the opinion that Iran wants to negotiate, regardless of the rhetoric of certain pillars of the regime. A signal of this readiness is the setting of a condition for starting negotiations, the main of which is guarantees that the war will not happen again.
In addition, Trump is not an ideologue, but a president oriented to results, and if he finds a way to present this as a victorious moment in his presidency, he will do it, Kuteish notes. He said that moment is not far off, but it needs a foundation, so it will take between three and five weeks.
Despite the military escalation, the Gulf states are showing restraint. "Restraint is a strategy in itself when it comes to the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, especially the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia," said Kuteish.
"These two countries have invested so much time, so much money and capital to position themselves as neutral centers in the Middle East. They present themselves as the place to be in the post-war period. I don't think they will enter the war. What they are trying to do is maintain moral superiority and their status as victims of the brutal and unprovoked Iranian aggression," he added.
In response to a question about why the UAE has been hit hardest, Kuteish points to three reasons. One is geographical proximity, as Iran has exhausted its long-range missile stockpiles since the June 2025 conflict. On the other hand, the Emirates are the center of globalization and a blow to them affects the entire world - on the American, European and Asian stock exchanges. Another aspect is ideological. The Emirates, and especially Abu Dhabi and Dubai, are an antidote to Iran and a counterexample to what this region can create in terms of stability, development, personal freedom, integration and peace.