The Washington administration has at least four options for dealing with Iran, but none of them would be favorable for the United States, the American magazine The Atlantic writes.
The article states that the risks stem not least from the fact that “Iran appears to consider its position relatively strong, given its de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz and therefore over world oil prices“. “Tehran may not believe that ending the war within the short timeframe dictated by the United States is in its interest“, the magazine's analysts note.
According to the article, the first scenario is a limited-scale ground operation by the US military to seize the Iranian island of Kharg, where key oil export infrastructure is located, or other archipelagos.
In addition, the US may try to land special forces in Iran to seize and export enriched uranium. According to The Atlantic, Washington could use the return of Kharg to Iran as a bargaining chip in future negotiations with Tehran. However, the landing would lead to a sharp rise in oil prices against the background of the risk of further escalation.
The publication considers a second scenario: Washington unilaterally declares victory in the conflict and withdraws its troops. However, in this case, the magazine writes, the risk of a recurrence of the conflict in the near future remains. In addition, Saudi Arabia and other US allies in the region could, against this background, try to develop their own arsenal of nuclear weapons to ensure their own security.
A third scenario could be the resumption of negotiations between Washington and Tehran. According to the publication's analysts, however, their chances of success are low. In addition, even if the parties reach a successful deal, the authors note, Iran will learn from the experience of this war and, after international sanctions are lifted, will use the profits received to restore its military potential. This, in turn, could provoke Israel to rekindle a similar conflict, in which the United States would again be forced to intervene.
The Atlantic points to the continuation of Washington's military operations without a ground operation as a last possible option. However, the publication also questions the viability of this alternative, as the United States is rapidly depleting its military arsenals and American consumers are increasingly dissatisfied with rising inflation and fuel prices.