The Financial Times reported that the head of the Swedish military intelligence service, Lieutenant General Thomas Nilsson, said that the Russian economy is failing to recover despite increased oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East, News.bg reports.
The assessment coincides with analyses by the Institute for the Study of War, according to which Russia continues to face serious economic challenges, while the Kremlin is trying to conceal their real extent.
According to Nilsson, Moscow needs the price of Urals crude oil to remain above $100 per barrel for at least a year to cover its budget deficit. However, even high prices cannot compensate for deeper structural problems. He warns that if prices stabilize and the ceasefire in the Middle East holds, Russia will have even more serious difficulties in financing its war in Ukraine.
Nilsson emphasizes that the economic model is unsustainable and cannot compensate for losses on the battlefield. Part of the defense industry, outside the drone sector, is inefficient, dependent on state funding and affected by corruption.
According to him, real inflation in Russia could reach about 15%, significantly above the officially announced 5.86%, and the budget deficit is underestimated by about $ 30 billion. These estimates overlap with the position of ISW that Moscow systematically presents a more favorable picture of its economy.
In parallel with the economic difficulties, Russia's infrastructure remains vulnerable. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported a strike on an oil tank at a refinery in Tuapse, causing a fire, which was also confirmed by local authorities in Krasnodar Krai.
In recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have attacked a number of energy and port facilities, including in Novorossiysk, Krymsk, Tikhoretsk and Yeysk.
At the same time, Russia attempted a drone attack on Ukrainian drone expert Serhiy Beskrestnov, in which he was injured.
On the diplomatic front, Volodymyr Zelensky said the country was expanding its cooperation with Gulf states, signing 10-year agreements with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, as well as contracts for arms exports, including drones.