As Washington and Tehran try to maintain a fragile truce, one of the biggest questions hanging over the conflict may not be about Iran at all, but about China.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week publicly called for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and urged an immediate ceasefire - his most explicit intervention in the conflict yet and a sign that Beijing is watching developments closely.
Zineb Riboua, a fellow at the Hudson Institute, which specializes in Chinese influence in the Middle East and North Africa, told Eye for Iran that the broader significance of Operation Epic Fury - the American campaign against Iran - could consist of weakening China's strategic position through its deep ties with the Islamic Republic.
"I am among those who believe that it is about weakening China," said Ribois. "I don't think the administration is saying it that way... but I think it's very important."
Beijing forced to come out
For weeks, China had largely avoided commenting publicly on the Strait of Hormuz crisis, despite its dependence on energy supplies from the Persian Gulf.
Ribois said Xi's sudden comments reflected Beijing's anxiety and may have exposed China's limited influence over Tehran.
"There has long been an assumption that the United States is in decline," she said, adding that Xi's intervention suggests that Washington may be "upsetting the status quo that China has enjoyed.".
She added that Beijing remains dependent on the United States' position in the strait and may not have enough leverage to exert direct pressure on Tehran.
Why Iran is important to China
China remains a major buyer of Iranian crude oil and has long benefited from Tehran's isolation.
"China has won on three fronts," Riboua said. "The first is oil... 90% of Iranian oil goes to China, and at a discount."
China is the world's largest importer of crude oil, importing about 11 million barrels a day, and is exposed to any disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global consumption passes.
According to data, Chinese buyers took more than 80% of Iran's crude exports in 2025, often at discounts of $8 to $10 below Brent, providing Beijing with a valuable low-cost source of supply.
Any prolonged standoff between the US and Iran or a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could force China to replace cheaper Iranian oil with more expensive alternatives, while higher transportation and insurance costs would add further pressure.
Riboua said Iran also serves as a testing ground for sanctions evasion and alternative financial channels.
"What the Islamic Republic was useful for China was actually a laboratory for sanctions evasion."
Networks linked to China have used shell companies, ship-to-ship transfers, relabeled cargo and alternative payment channels to keep Iranian oil flowing despite Western restrictions.
US trapped in the Middle East
Iran's efforts to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz may have also harmed one of its most important partners.
"The Islamic Republic believed that by weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz, it could put pressure on the US president," Riboua said. "But in the process, they have hurt China."
Because China is heavily dependent on regional energy flows, any prolonged disruption raises the stakes for Beijing.
Ribois argues that the broader struggle remains centered in Asia.
"You want the Americans to be trapped in the Middle East," she said. "That's the ideal scenario when you think about invading Taiwan."
If Ribois is right, Operation Epic Fury could be more than a campaign to contain Iran. It could mark an early step in a broader struggle over China's influence in the Middle East—and beyond.